考虑消费者有限理性的体验式商品订购与库存配给策略  

Ordering and Capacity Rationing for Experience Goods with Consumers’Bounded Rationalities

作　　者：徐建 段永瑞[2] XU Jian;DUAN Yong-rui(School of Business Administration,Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai 201620,China;School of Economics and Management,Tongji Unversity,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院工商管理学院,上海201620 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2021年第10期140-150,共11页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72001142,71771179,71371139)。

摘　　要：退货遗忘与缺货后悔是消费者在现实中普遍存在的有限理性行为。在考虑这两种有限理性行为以及销售商提供无理由退款承诺的基础上,构建了一个两期模型对体验式商品的订购与库存配给策略进行了分析。研究得到如下结论:首先,只有当产品价值的上界大于某个临界值时,消费者才会在两个销售期内购买产品,销售商应该采取库存配给策略以应对消费者的策略行为;其次,销售商的收益随着消费者满意概率、退货遗忘率和缺货后悔程度的增大而增大。数值分析表明:当消费者满意概率或产品满足率感知偏差较大时,消费者策略行为的负面影响在一定程度上得到减轻;虽然有限理性总是可以提高销售商的收益,但是退货遗忘与缺货后悔对销售商收益增长的影响作用是不同的。An experience good is any product whose valuation cannot be easily assessed ex ante by consumers.The short sales period and the valuation uncertainty are two predominant characteristics of experience goods.In the regular period,although many sellers offer money-back guarantees to consumers,some of them may forget to return products even if they feel unsatisfied.In the discount period,consumers may regret their waiting behavior when they find products are sold out.Returns forgetfulness and stockout regret are two common boundedly rational behaviors of consumers in reality.Both of them have significant influence on the seller’s ordering and capacity rationing decisions.In this paper,a two-period model is developed to explore the ordering and capacity rationing policies when consumers are strategic and boundedly rational(i.e.,returns forgetfulness and stockout regret).The seller has two pricing strategies:one is the markdown strategy,and the other is the everyday low price strategy.Money-back guarantees are offered to consumers in the regular period but not in the discount period.When consumers defer their purchase,they may obtain the product at a discount price or face the stockout.In addition,consumers are unable to accurately estimate the actual fill rate of the discount period.The results are obtained as follows.Firstly,when the upper bound of product valuation is larger than a threshold,consumers buy in both periods,and it is profitable for the seller to implement the rationing strategy;otherwise,all consumers wait until the discount period and it is profitable for the seller to charge a low fixed price and satisfy all the demand.Secondly,the return cost is always detrimental to the seller when he adopts a rationing strategy.Thirdly,the optimal profit is increasing in the probability of satisfaction,the degree of returns forgetfulness and the degree of stockout regret.By numerical studies,the following findings are obtained.First of all,a larger probability of satisfaction or estimated bias of fill rate can a

关 键 词：库存配给 策略消费者 有限理性 体验式商品 退款承诺 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]