创业还是就业?——行为经济学视角下的动态效用最大化分析  

Entrepreneurship or employment?The analysis of dynamic utility maximization from the perspective of behavioral economics

作　　者：黄永春[1,2] 胡世亮 叶子[1] 李光明 HUANG Yongchun;HU Shiliang;YE Zi;LI Guangming(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization,Nanjing 210004,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]世界水谷与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏南京210004

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2021年第6期73-86,共14页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(16AGL005);南京市社会科学基金重大项目(18CA02);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2019B30314)。

摘　　要：随着"大众创业、万众创新"战略部署的推进,我国国民的创业动力和积极性空前提高。本文以行为经济学为视角,基于创业MOS模型,通过对自主动机、创业能力、创业机会和创业风险等效用因素的分析,提出了个体效用最大化的创业决策MOSR模型;进而解析了随着时间演化和个体创业能力的积累,行为主体创业与否的抉择机制。在此基础上,进行了数理分析、仿真分析和实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)工作自主性的诉求动机、创业机会的感知和感知能力的提升不仅能够激发个体的创业积极性,而且能驱动个体较早地选择创业;而感知创业风险不仅会抑制个体的创业积极性,而且会滞缓个体创业时机的选择。(2)创业能力是驱动行为主体萌发创业动机的核心要素,其不仅能够增强个体创业收入的预期,强化工作自主性的诉求;而且有助于个体感知和开发创业机会,缓解个体的风险恐惧感,从而激发个体的创业行为。(3)后发国家为了推进经济发展,会鼓励创业行为,制定降低创业风险的政策,因而要素驱动型国家和投资驱动型国家的个体创业倾向高于创新驱动型国家;但后发国家的创业模式更多地体现为生存驱动型,因而创业失败率较高且社会辐射效应也较低。鉴于此,行为主体应加强创业学习,积累创业能力,转变风险态度,以开发创业机会与资源。与此同时,后发国家应完善创业保障与服务,加强创业教育与激励,提供合理的创业资源支持,以激发个体的创业动力,提升个体的创业能力。In emerging industries especially,extensive efforts have been made to promote"mass entrepreneurship and innovation"in China to dissolve the pressure of the"new normal"derived from economic growth and promote more adequate employment by higher quality means.The survival rate of Chinese start-ups,however,shown by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM)report,is below5 percent.Furthermore,the annual failure rate is twice as high as that of GEM member countries.Therefore,it is essential to study individual choice of entrepreneurship or the mechanism influencing employment.Under these circumstances,this study can guide the entrepreneurial practice of new entrepreneurs in China and provide theoretical guidance for the improvement of China’s entrepreneurship policy.Based on previous literature,this paper proposes a theoretical framework for entrepreneurial MOSR(Motivation,Opportunity,Skill,and Risk),clarifies the key drivers for individual entrepreneurial decision making,and analyzes the four factors’internal mechanisms.Moreover,this study constructs a mathematical model of whether an individual starts a business and analyzes the mechanism generating decision-making behavior between employee-to-entrepreneur and entrepreneur-to-employee.This research uses the GEM database’s Adult Population Survey(APS)to conduct empirical analysis and study the mechanism influencing individual,entrepreneurial decision-making behavior.From the perspective of behavioral economics,the first part constructs the MOSR theoretical framework of the individual entrepreneurship decision-making mechanism.This study proposes an entrepreneurial MOSR model based on the MOS model.We conclude that individuals will analyze positive utility obtained from entrepreneurial income,work autonomy,and entrepreneurial opportunities when choosing their career and weigh the disutility originating from entrepreneurial risk based on the expected utility theory.Ultimately,the decision to start a business is made according to the expected total utility of entrep

关 键 词：创业 就业 行为经济学 动态效用 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]