GMII(1,1)模型及其应用  

The Model of GMII(1,1)and Its Application

作　　者：苏术锋[1] 潘坤友[1] SU Shu-feng;PAN Kun-you(Yancheng Institute of Technology,Yancheng 224051,China)

机构地区：[1]盐城工学院经济管理学院,江苏盐城224051

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第20期277-281,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41871108)。

摘　　要：首次提出基于灰发展系数■a和灰作用量■b的纯灰数GMII(1,1)模型.GM(1,1)模型不足最主要的不是其精度问题,而是它与一般计量模型区分度不大;它的基本方程与白化微分方程中的系数与都是白数,并没有体现灰数的理念.而GMII(1,1)模型特点,一是它是纯灰数方程,与一般计量模型有了较大的区别;二是它是区间预测,不再是GM (1,1)模型点预测;三是对初始条件取值是基于MAPE最小确定,而不是人为确认通过某一点.给出了 GMII (1,1)模型及其优化模型,并将其应用于中国能源消耗总量的预测.This paper argues that the most weakness of GM(1,1)model is not its accuracy,but that it has little difference with ordinary metrological models.The coefficients of its basic equation and whitenization differential equation are all white numbers,and do not reflect the concept of grey number.So that it first proposed pure grey GMII(1,1)model and its optimized model.Finally the model has been verified by the total energy consumption in China.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) GMII(1 1)模型 优化GMII(1 1)模型 能源消耗 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]