公共卫生危机影响下的错时复课机理:基于多目标时刻瓶颈模型  

The Mechanism of Staggering School Hours in Public Health Crises:Based on Bottleneck Model of Multi-Arrival Time

作　　者：张子鹏 张宁[1] ZHANG Zipeng;ZHANG Ning(School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Haidian100191 Beijing)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《管理学刊》2021年第5期41-56,共16页Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70971003);国家留学基金委公派留学项目(201806020083)。

摘　　要：针对大型传染病影响下的公共卫生危机,尤其是新冠(COVID-19)疫情常态化防控背景,本文提出了基于社交距离的多目标时刻错时入校瓶颈模型。该模型得出了错时入校措施在缓解排队拥堵、降低疫情传播风险方面的实施原理及判定条件,模型中的逐日内生平衡机制还揭示了错时入校措施对不同学生群体入校选择行为进行动态调节的机理,最后通过解析解的形式给出了错时入校系统达到均衡状态时不同批次学生群体的到校时间选择及均衡人数比例。此外,为研究错时复课措施在疫情防控方面的最优效果,本文提出了增加错时时间间隔和增加错时入校批次的混合系统优化策略,并发现:增加错时入校批次方案相比前者有更低的运营成本、更显著的系统效率提升效果。具体地,当N≤N*时,入校批次大于3次时,排队效率提升低于50%;当N>N*时,可采用增加错时时间间隔和增加入校批次相混合的方法提升系统效率,降低成本。研究结果为后疫情时代国内外学校采取错时复学措施防控疫情传播提供了理论指导。Based on social distancing, the paper attempts to design the Bottleneck Model of Multi-Arrival Time for responding to large-scale outbreak of pandemic, especially when the prevention and control of covid-19 is normalized. The model makes clear how staggering school hours can reduce congestion and the risk of communicating covid-19, and how to judge whether the effect is the best. The day-to-day endogenous equilibrium in the model shows how to adjust the time for different classes to come to school dynamically. Finally, analytical solution is used to show how to decide the time and average number for students to come each time so as to ensure the equilibrium of the staggering-school-hour system. For staggering school hours to produce the best result in the prevention and control of pandemic, the paper proposes a mixed optimizing strategy: increasing the intervals between staggered hours and batches of classes arriving at school, and has found out that having more batches of classes stagger school hours is more economical for operation than the latter and makes the system more efficient. Analytic solutions show that:(1) when N≤N*, if the number of staggered groups is more than 3, the queuing efficiency is improved by less than 50%.(2) when N>N*, we can use this hybrid approach to improve system efficiency and reduce costs. Thus, this paper can also provide theoretical guidance for prevention and control of covid-19 in primary, secondary schools and universities at home and abroad in the post-pandemic era.

关 键 词：社交距离 错时入校 瓶颈模型 COVID-19 用户均衡 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济] U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]