自由贸易协定推动了全球经济包容性增长吗?  

Are Free Trade Agreements Driving Inclusive Growth of the Global Economy?

作　　者：马野青[1,2] 倪一宁 李洲 MA Ye-qing;NI Yi-ning;LI Zhou(School of Economics,Nanjing University,210093;Research Center for China and World Economy,Nanjing University,210093)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,210093 [2]南京大学中国与世界经济研究中心,210093

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2021年第10期114-128,共15页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’倡议下我国企业集群式投资战略与全球价值链重构研究”(批准号:18BGL021);国家自然科学基金青年项目“反倾销引致贸易政策不确定性的影响研究”(批准号:71803079);江苏省研究生科研创新计划“人才结构升级、全球经贸规则与中国对外贸易”(批准号:KYCX210003)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文基于OECD数据库2005-2015年的投入产出数据,测算了各国在效率和公平层面的增加值溢出和工资溢出指标,并结合多期DID和RD-DID等方法,对自由贸易协定如何影响全球经济包容性增长的问题展开实证研究。研究发现:(1)自由贸易协定的签订显著推动了全球经济包容性增长,其中,中低收入国家、收入分配较为合理的国家以及制度质量较好的国家,受到自由贸易协定带来的经济包容性增长促进作用更加显著。(2)自由贸易协定的签订通过降低贸易壁垒和提升市场竞争优势两个渠道推动了全球经济的包容性增长。(3)自由贸易协定的签订对协定内部国家包容性增长的促进更强,对协定外部国家的包容性增长促进作用因缔约国的规模而异,协定规模越小对协定外国家的包容性越差。本文的研究对中国如何更好地利用自由贸易协定推动国内经济以"共同富裕"为目标的包容性发展具有一定的参考和借鉴意义。Based on the input-output data of OECD database from 2005 to 2015, this paper calculates and obtains value added spillover and wage spillover indicators of each country in terms of efficiency and fair, and carries out an empirical study on how free trade agreements affect inclusive growth of the global economy by using Time-Varying DID and RD-DID methods. The results show that:(1) The signing of free trade agreements has significantly promoted inclusive growth of the global economy, among which, low income and middle income countries, countries with more reasonable income distribution and countries with better institutional quality are more significantly promoted by the inclusive economic growth brought by free trade agreements.(2) The signing of free trade agreements has promoted inclusive growth of the global economy through lowering trade barriers and enhancing market competitiveness.(3) The signing of free trade agreements has a stronger effect on promoting inclusive growth of countries within the agreement members, while the effect on promoting inclusive growth of countries outside the agreement varies with the size of the contracting countries. The smaller the size of the agreement is, the less inclusive the countries outside agreements will be. The research of this paper has certain reference significance for China to make better use of free trade agreements to promote the inclusive growth of domestic economy with the goal of "Common Prosperity".

关 键 词：自由贸易协定 包容性增长 多期DID 增加值溢出 工资溢出 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]