智能算法在电网负荷预测中的应用研究  

Research on the Application of Intelligent Algorithms in Power Grid Load Forecasting

作　　者：王世芳 鲍程程 WANG Shifang;BAO Chengcheng(School of Electrical Engineering,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China;College of Electronic and Information Engineering,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工程大学电气工程学院,安徽芜湖241000 [2]西南大学电子信息工程学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《安徽工程大学学报》2021年第5期32-38,88,共8页Journal of Anhui Polytechnic University

基　　金：国家工程实验室开放课题基金资助项目(KFKT201510);安徽工程大学科研基金资助项目(2015YQ15)。

摘　　要：负荷预测作为电力系统规划运行的前提,在电力规划设计中无比重要。为了更加准确地预测出各地域各部门的电力负荷,研究将智能算法应用于电力负荷预测之中,这对城市及国家的电力规划设计有很大的意义。研究分别利用灰色预测理论及多元线性回归模型两种算法对芜湖市市辖区的用电量进行负荷预测,并将两种算法的预测精度进行了对比。这两种算法都符合预测的精度要求,且都提高了电力负荷预测的精确度,具有良好的应用前景。As a prerequisite for power system planning and operation,load forecasting is extremely important in power planning and design.In order to predict the power load of various regions and departments more accurately,this paper applies intelligent algorithms to power load forecasting,which is of great significance to the regional or national power planning and design.In this paper,the grey forecasting theory and the multiple linear regression model are used to forecast the electricity consumption in the municipal districts of Wuhu City,respectively,and compare the forecasting accuracy of the electricity consumption under the two algorithms.Both of these algorithms,which improve the accuracy of power load forecasting,meet the accuracy requirements of forecasting and have good application prospects.

关 键 词：电力负荷预测 灰色预测理论 多元线性回归 中期负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]