基于气象灾害的关键电力设备风险预警模型与实现方法  

Risk Early Warning Model for Key Power Equipment Based on Meteorological Disasters and Its Realization

作　　者：寇正 刘涛玮 刘轩 赵建利[1,2] 冯汝明 何文浩 KOU Zheng;LIU Taowei;LIU Xuan;ZHAO Jianli;FENG Ruming;HE Wenhao(Inner Mongolia Power Research Institute,Hohhot 010020,China;Inner Mongolia Enterprise Key Laboratory of High Voltage and Insulation Technology,Hohhot 010020,China;Inner Mongolia EHV Bureau,Hohhot 010080,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古电力科学研究院,呼和浩特010020 [2]内蒙古自治区高电压与绝缘技术企业重点实验室,呼和浩特010020 [3]内蒙古超高压供电局,呼和浩特010080

出　　处：《内蒙古电力技术》2021年第5期10-14,39,共6页Inner Mongolia Electric Power

基　　金：内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司科技项目“基于气象数据的均衡发供电以及检修智能化关联分析系统”(2018-01-15)。

摘　　要：在分析电力设备历史故障与气象灾害之间关系的基础上,根据洛伦斯理论搭建了受单一或多种气象灾害下的电力设备风险模型,结合灾害类型与灾害等级,得出了特定气象灾害条件下电力设备出现故障概率与电力设备风险预警相关性耦合的计算方法,建立了基于气象灾害的电力设备风险预警评估规则和风险等级,有助于提高电网安全运行水平。On the basis of the relationship between historical failures of power equipment and meteorological disasters,this paper builts a power equipment risk model under single or multiple meteorological disasters according to Lowrance theory.Combining disaster type and disaster level,the calculation method of coupling the probability of power equipment failure and the risk warning of power equipment under specific meteorological disaster conditions is obtained.The risk warning evaluation rules and risk level of power equipment based on meteorological disaster are established,which is helpful to improve the level of safe operation of the power grid.

关 键 词：电力设备 气象灾害 风险预警 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]