云解析人工影响天气数值模式的改进、初步试验和展望  

Development of a Cloud-Resolvable Weather Modification Model:Model Description,Preliminary Results and Challenges

作　　者：刘玉宝[1] 丁秋冀[1] 史月琴[2] 方春刚[2] 段婧[2] 楼小凤[2] 李萍[1] 霍朝阳[1] 周永波 王昊亮[1] 景晓琴 王新 陈添宇[2] 陈宝君 李集明[2] Liu Yubao;Ding Qiuji;Shi Yueqin;Fang Chungang;Duan Jing;Lou Xiaofeng;Li Ping;Huo Zhaoyang;Zhou Yongbo;Wang Haoliang;Jing Xiaoqin;Wang Xin;Chen Tianyu;Chen Baojun;Li Jiming(Precision Regional Earth Modeling and Information Center,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of China Meteorological Administration,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;National Satellite Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学精细化区域地球模拟和信息中心,南京210044 [2]中国气象科学研究院中国气象局云物理开放实验室,北京100081 [3]国家气象卫星中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第5期77-85,共9页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局西北人工影响天气工程技术建设项目(ZQC-Z19081/ZQC-Z19176)。

摘　　要：基于WRF四维资料同化和预报技术,初步发展了针对我国西北地区云微物理和播云催化技术的云解析人工影响天气模式系统(CR-WMM,Cloud-Resolvable Weather Modification Model)。该模式耦合并改进了中国气象科学院发展的微物理方案(CAMS-MP)和碘化银(AgI)催化方案,并实现基于大涡模拟(LES)模式的飞机、地面烟炉等播撒源及毗邻区域AgI粒子扩散的精细模拟方法。选取降水案例对CR-WMM资料同化功能、CAMS-MP微物理参数化和AgI的催化数值模拟方案进行测试和评估,验证了该系统的资料同化能力、微物理参数化和AgI催化数值模拟方案的可靠性。CR-WMM具备连续同化常规和加密气象观测,特别是针对云微物理过程的新型卫星、云雷达和人工影响天气外场作业飞机和基地的特殊观测能力,能生成全面、精确的云和降水热力、动力和微物理分析场,支撑云和降水过程及云催化技术的理论研究及优化人工播云方案辅助决策。并提出为达到这一目标,CR-WMM模式在未来5—10年应集中攻克的五个方面的科学难题。Based on WRF four-dimensional data assimilation and forecast(WRF-FDDA),a cloud-resolving weather modification model(CR-WMM)is developed for modeling and forecasting cloud microphysical and cloud-seeding processes in Northwest China.The microphysical parameterization(CAMS-MP)and the silver iodide(AgI)cloud-seeding schemes,developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,are transplanted into CR-WMM.The model permits simultaneously nested-grid LES(Large-Eddy Simulation)simulation of transportation and dispersion of AgI particles released from aircrafts or ground burner stoves.Precipitation cases are simulated to evaluate the data assimilation,CAMS-MP and AgI nucleation scheme in CR-WMM and the result demonstrated the general reliability of these components.CR-WMM is been developed for continuously assimilating diverse observational datasets,including conventional and intensive ground and upper-air meteorological observations,satellite cloud observations,and special cloud-radar and aircraft in-situ observations during weather modification operations as well.The system produces integrated analysis of thermodynamic,dynamic and microphysical analysis fields of cloud and precipitation processes,which can be used to support cloud and weather modification theoretical studies and field cloud-seeding operations.Finally,several challenges with the CR-WMM developments are identified,which should be addressed in the next 5−10 years.

关 键 词：WRF 云解析模式 四维资料同化 CAMS微物理方案 大涡模拟 人工影响天气 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P48