我国水产品进口贸易波动研究  

Research on the Fluctuation of China′s Aquatic Products Import Trade

作　　者：刘岳 杨正勇[1,2,3] LIU Yue;YANG Zhengyong(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Marine Industry Research Center,Shanghai 201306,China;China Aquaculture Economic Research Center,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]海洋产业发展战略研究中心,上海201306 [3]水产养殖经济研究中心,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋经济》2021年第3期74-81,共8页Marine Economy

摘　　要：随着我国人民生活水平及消费水平的提高,对水产品的需求不断增加。因此,本文首先对1995—2017年我国水产品进口贸易现状进行分析,并应用CMS模型对我国水产品进口贸易波动进行实证分析,探索水产品进口贸易增长成因,检验水产品进口与世界进口规模间的关系,据此为促进我国水产品进口贸易的可持续发展提出相关建议。研究结果表明:世界经济的发展及我国较强的进口引力是促进我国水产品进口贸易增长的关键因素,而进口产品结构及市场分布的不合理阻碍了我国水产品进口贸易的增长。因此,应协调世界经济发展,优化水产品进口贸易品种结构及市场结构,加强国际交流与协作,进而推进水产品进口贸易及国内产业的可持续发展。With the improvement of people′s living standards and consumption levels in our country,the demand for aquatic products is increasing.Therefore,this paper first analyzes the current situation of China′s aquatic product import trade from 1995 to 2017,and applies the CMS model to empirically analyze the fluctuation of China′s aquatic product import trade,explores the cause of the growth of aquatic product import trade,and tests relationship between the import of aquatic products and the world′s import scale.Based on this,relevant suggestions are proposed to promote the sustainable development of China′s aquatic product import trade.The research results show that the development of the world economy and China′s strong import gravity are the key factors to promote the growth of China′s aquatic products import trade,and the unreasonable structure of imported products and market distribution hinder the growth of China′s aquatic products import trade.Therefore,we should coordinate the development of the world economy,optimize the variety structure and market structure of aquatic products import trade,strengthen international exchanges and cooperation,and promote the import of aquatic products and the sustainable development of domestic industries.

关 键 词：水产品 MS模型 贸易波动 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]