2002-2018年中国省级层面疾病预防控制人员数量变化的间断时间序列分析  

Changes of the number of disease control and prevention staffs at provincial level in China from 2002 to 2018:an interrupted time series analysis

作　　者：袁莎莎[1] 邱五七[1] 王芳[1] 赵君[1] Yuan Shasha;Qiu Wuqi;Wang Fang;Zhao Jun(Institute of Medical Information and Library,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院医学信息研究所,北京100020

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2021年第10期1192-1195,共4页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：新冠肺炎疫情专项立项课题“中国疾病预防控制体系结构质量研究”(2020XG021)。

摘　　要：目的分析新医疗卫生体系改革(新医改)前后中国省级层面疾病预防控制(疾控)人员数量的时间变化趋势。方法提取整理2002—2018年中国卫生统计年鉴疾控人员数量数据,利用Stata/SE 15统计软件进行描述性分析和间断时间序列分析。结果东部、中部地区疾控人员数量和每万人口疾控人员数量配置的降低趋势在新医改实施后进一步加大,但西部地区人员数量由改革前的降低趋势变为改革后的增长趋势且每万人口数量配置降幅减小。在调整省级和时间固定效应后,间断时间序列分析显示,改革前,中部地区疾控人员数量呈下降趋势(P=0.012);改革后东部、中部和西部地区疾控人员数量变化无统计学意义。结论新医改后省级层面疾控人员数量和每万人口人员配置的下降趋势并未得到改善,应进一步制定针对性的改革策略扭转疾控人员数量的持续减少,并体现地区差异性。Objective To analyze the change of the number of staff at the provincial center for disease control and prevention(CDC)in China before and after the new health care reform.Methods The data was from publicly reported health statistics yearbooks from 2002 to 2018.Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series analysis(ITS)were conducted in Stata/SE 15.Results The decreasing trend of total number and average number of CDC staff per ten thousand people further exacerbated in the eastern and central areas after the new health care reform,while the total number of CDC staff in the western area changed from a decreasing trend to an increasing tend and the decreasing trend of average number of CDC staff per ten thousand people slowed down.After controlling the provincial and time fixed effects,the ITS analysis showed that before the reform,the number of CDC staff in central area showed a decreasing trend(P=0.012).After the reform,no statistically significant changes were observed in the number of CDC staff in the eastern,central and western areas increased instantaneously(P>0.05),and the decreasing trend(slope)of the number of CDC staff in the eastern and central areas further increased.The number of CDC staff in the western area changed to an increasing trend(P>0.05).Conclusion After the new health care reform,the total number and average number of CDC staff at the provincial level have not improved,therefore targeted reform strategies are needed to reverse the continuous reduction of CDC staff and reflect regional differences in the future.

关 键 词：卫生保健改革 卫生人力 疾病预防控制 间断时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R197.2[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]