微观模拟模型在癌症一级和二级预防中的应用概述  

Brief introduction of the application of microsimulation model in the primary and secondary cancer prevention

作　　者：陆斌 卢明 张愉涵 蔡洁 陈宏达 代敏 Lu Bin;Lu Ming;Zhang Yuhan;Cai Jie;Chen Hongda;Dai Min(Office of Cancer Screening,National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100021,China;Department of General Surgery,Peking Union Medical College Hospital,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100730,China)

机构地区：[1]国家癌症中心国家肿瘤临床医学研究中心中国医学科学院北京协和医学院肿瘤医院癌症早诊早治办公室,北京100021 [2]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院基本外科,北京100730

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2021年第10期1250-1255,共6页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(7202169);北京市科技新星计划(Z191100001119065)。

摘　　要：微观模拟模型研究可通过模拟大量具有不同特征的微观个体,构建疾病进展模型,评价危险因素控制和早期干预策略等在疾病预防中的效果和效益,从而克服传统流行病学研究投入高、耗时长等局限性,为疾病预防决策制定提供重要证据支撑。本研究介绍了微观模拟模型的定义和构建方法,并结合研究实例阐述马尔可夫模型、决策树模型以及离散事件模型等3种建模方法在癌症一级和二级预防领域中的应用,以期为未来开展相关疾病防控研究提供参考。Microsimulation model research can simulate a large number of micro individuals with different characteristics,build disease progression models,and evaluate the effects and benefits of risk factor control and early intervention strategies used in disease prevention and control,which could overcome the limitations of traditional epidemiological research,such as high investment and long time-consuming,and provide important evidence support for decision-making.This study introduces the definition and methods of microsimulation model,and articulates the application of three modeling methods including Markov model,decision-tree model and discrete event model in the primary and secondary cancer prevention,in order to provide reference for relevant disease prevention and control research in the future.

关 键 词：肿瘤 一级预防 二级预防 微观模拟模型 

分 类 号：R730.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]