房地产市场系统动力学仿真模型研究——以北京市为例  

System Dynamics Simulation of Real Estate Market:Taking Beijing for Example

作　　者：张品一 杨娟妮 ZHANG Pin-yi;YANG Juan-ni

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院 [2]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院绿色发展大数据决策北京市重点实验室

出　　处：《北京社会科学》2021年第10期87-96,共10页Social Sciences of Beijing

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(61703010)——货币政策与房地产系统交互协调研究。

摘　　要：以北京市商品住房市场为例,基于系统动力学理论,从住房供给和住房需求角度确定房价的影响因素,构建房地产市场的系统动力学仿真模型。结合税收政策、利率政策和土地政策,对2000-2019年商品住房价格进行政策仿真调控,结果显示土地政策对商品住房价格的影响最大,其次是利率政策,税率政策的影响最小。对房地产市场进行调控,需要以优化土地供应结构为主,合理利用利率政策因地制宜进行贷款利率弹性化调整,并辅之以税收政策,以维持房价稳定、保障房地产市场健康发展。In order to better reveal the law of housing price fluctuation,this paper takes Beijing as an example,based on the system dynamics theory,determines the variables that affect housing prices from the perspective of housing supply and housing demand,and builds a system dynamics model of the real estate housing market in our country.Then taxation policy,interest rate policy and land policy are regulated respectively to simulate the commodity housing price from 2000 to 2019.The results show that land policy has the greatest impact on the commodity housing price,followed by interest rate policy,and tax rate policy has the least impact.Therefore,the macro-control of our country's real estate market needs to focus on optimizing the structure of land supply,rational use of interest rate policies to adjust loan interest rates according to local conditions,and be supplemented by tax policies to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market.

关 键 词：商品住房价格 系统动力学 政策调控 仿真 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]