数字经济与区域经济增长的机制识别与异质性研究  

Research on Mechanism Identification and Heterogeneity of Digital Economy and Regional Economic Growth

作　　者：张少华 陈治[2] ZHANG Shao-hua;CHEN Zhi(School of Finance and Public Economics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,TaiYuan 030006,China;School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,TaiYuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学财政与公共经济学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2021年第11期14-27,共14页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国创新资源与区域产业结构的空间错配及修正机制研究”(16BGL207)。

摘　　要：数字经济作为新一轮经济形态快速发展,全面评估数字经济对区域经济增长的影响具有重要的研究价值。从信息化基础、互联网融合、数字化人才与数字技术产出四个维度,采用主成分分析法构建省域数字经济发展指标体系,并利用2010—2019年中国省级面板数据,探究数字经济对区域经济增长的作用路径及异质性影响。研究发现:数字经济有利于促进区域经济增长,且该结论具有很好的稳健性。分位数回归表明,数字经济在低分位数上对区域经济增长的影响大且显著性强,在高分位数上其对区域经济增长的影响小且显著性弱。由面板门限模型回归结果可知,数字经济对区域经济增长存在单门限效应,只有当数字经济超过单一门限值时其对经济增长的正向作用才会显著。基于区位因素与区域特征而言,数字经济对中西部地区、城镇化率较低与高物质资本投入地区经济增长的正向作用更明显。机制识别检验发现,数字经济可以通过促进产业结构升级与全要素生产率提升的独立中介渠道以及“产业结构升级—全要素生产率提升”的链式中介渠道促进经济增长。The digital economy is developing rapidly as a new economic form of a new round of technological innovation and industrial transformation.A comprehensive assessment of the impact of the digital economy on regional economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance.Adopting principal component analysis to construct a provincial digital economy development indicator system from the four dimensions of information foundation,internet integration,digital talents and digital technology output,and empirically studies the effect path and heterogeneity of the digital economy on regional economic growth by analyzing provincial panel data of 2010—2019 years in China.The conclusions are as follows:the digital economy has a significant role in promoting regional economic growth,and after considering endogenous,the conclusion is still robust.Furthermore,quantile regression shows that the digital economy has a large and significant impact on regional economic growth at low quantiles,and the impact of the digital economy on regional economic growth at high quantiles is laughable and weakly significant.Taking into account the nonlinear effect of the digital economy on regional economic growth,the regression results of the panel threshold model show that,the digital economy has a single threshold effect on regional economic growth and its positive effect on economic growth will be significant only when the digital economy exceeds a single threshold.Considering the objectively existing location factors and regional characteristic differences,it is found that the digital economy has a more obvious positive effect on the economic growth of the central and western regions,areas with low urbanization rates and high material capital investment.Finally,using the intermediary effect model to explore the role of digital economy affecting regional economic growth,the mechanism identification test found that the digital economy can promote economic growth through independent intermediary channels that promote the upgradin

关 键 词：数字经济 经济增长 机制识别 异质性 分位数回归 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F061[经济管理—政治经济学]