Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model  

作　　者：WANG Ting PENG Yue-hua ZHANG Bang-lin LEUNG Jeremy Cheuk-Hin SHI Wei-lai 王挺;彭跃华;张邦林;梁卓轩;施伟来(Mail Box 5111,Beijing 100094 China;Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian,Liaoning 116018 China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510000 China;College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073 China)

机构地区：[1]Mail Box 5111,Beijing 100094 China [2]Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian,Liaoning 116018 China [3]Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 China [4]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510000 China [5]College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2021年第3期191-200,共10页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405062, 41775017)。

摘　　要：Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.

关 键 词：4D-VAR weather control Typhoon Mitag WRF model vortex dynamical initialization 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]