基于灰色系统理论的中长期负荷预测应用方法探究  

Research on Application Method of Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：周鑫 王巍[1] 王子强[1] 刘帅 ZHOU Xin;WANG Wei;WANG Ziqiang;LIU Shuai(Power Dispatching Control Center of China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510623,Guangdong,China;Beijing Qingruan Innovation Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国南方电网电力调度控制中心,广东广州510623 [2]北京清软创新科技有限公司,北京100085

出　　处：《能源与节能》2021年第11期165-168,共4页Energy and Energy Conservation

基　　金：南方电网公司重点科技项目(ZDKJXM20190020)。

摘　　要：中长期负荷预测一直以来都是电力系统的重要工作之一,是实现电网经济运行的前提和基础,确定性的电力负荷预测为电力工程建设提供最有力的数据支持。基于灰色系统理论的中长期负荷预测模型是一类应用理论比较广泛的中长期负荷预测方法。通过基于灰色系统理论的中长期负荷预测模型的构建,结合具体算法实例,探究了常规灰色系统法与灰色马卡可夫预测法的实用效果,展现了基于灰色系统理论的中长期负荷预测的应用前景。Medium and long term load forecasting has always been one of the important work of power system and the premise and foundation of realizing the economic operation of power grid.Deterministic power load forecasting provides the most powerful data support for power engineering construction.The medium and long term load forecasting model based on grey system theory is a kind of medium and long term load forecasting method with wide application theory.Through the construction of medium and long term load forecasting model based on grey system theory,combined with specific algorithm examples,this paper explored the practical effects of conventional grey system method and grey Markov forecasting method,and showed the application prospect of medium and long term load forecasting based on grey system theory.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 中长期负荷预测 GM(1 1)方法 三点平滑法 等维新息模型 灰色马卡可夫预测法 

分 类 号：TM715.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]