基于Schwartz-Moon定价模型的通信设备企业价值评估研究--以中兴通讯为例  

Research on Communication Equipment Enterprise Valuation Based on Schwartz-Moon Pricing Model--Taking ZTE as an Example

作　　者：王玲 刘春学[1] 王玉元 白彧颖 胥子灵 赵昕毅 Wang Ling;Liu Chunxue;Wang Yuyuan;Bai Yuying;Xu Ziling;Zhao Xinyi(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,School of Urban and Environment,Kunming,650221;Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,School of Accounting,Kunming,650221)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学城市与环境学院,云南昆明650221 [2]云南财经大学会计学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《中国资产评估》2021年第10期22-29,共8页Appraisal Journal of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号:42062020);云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究项目资助(编号:SYSX202027)。

摘　　要：通信设备企业是5G等新基建建设的主力军,具有高投入、高收益、高成长性的特点。但针对通信设备企业价值评估的研究较少,且鲜有文献在评估过程中考虑到其价值特点。本文以中兴通讯为例,通过Schwartz-Moon定价模型将实物期权法结合蒙特卡罗模拟描述企业未来现金流量分布,累计折现后得到企业价值期望值和估值区间,并将传统的FCFF模型估值方法与Schwartz-Moon定价模型进行对比分析。研究结果表明:(1)不确定性因素对于通信设备企业价值管理有着重要的战略地位,有效管理不确定性对提升通信设备企业价值具有显著作用;(2)与FCFF模型相比,Schwartz-Moon定价模型更符合市场对通信设备企业价值的预期,并能提供估值区间便于弹性决策参考。Communication equipment enterprises are the main force of 5G and other new infrastructure construction.They are characterized by high investment,high profit and high growth.However,there are few researches on the valuation of communication equipment enterprises,and few literatures consider their value characteristics in the evaluation process.Taking ZTE as an example,this paper uses the Schwartz-Moon pricing model to simulate the future cash flow distribution of the enterprise by combining the real option method with the Monte Carlo simulation.After cumulative discount,the expected value and valuation range of the enterprise are obtained.In addition,the traditional FCFF model and Schwartz-Moon pricing model are compared and analyzed.The results show that:(1)Uncertainty factors play an important strategic role in the value management of communication equipment enterprises,and effective management of uncertainty plays a significant role in enhancing the value of communication equipment enterprises;(2)Compared with FCFF model,Schwartz-Moon pricing model is more in line with the market’s expectation of value of communication equipment enterprises,and can provide a range of valuation for flexible decision-making reference.

关 键 词：Schwartz-Moon定价模型 通信设备企业 价值评估 实物期权理论 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]