人力资本偏向金融部门如何影响实体经济增长?  

Does Human Capital in the Financial Sector Affect Real Economic Growth in China?

作　　者：刘贯春 司登奎 刘芳[3] LIU Guanchun;SI Dengkui;LIU Fang(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University;School of Economics,Qingdao University;Institute for the World Economy,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275 [2]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266061 [3]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《金融研究》2021年第10期78-97,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003116);上海市“晨光计划”项目(19CG40);“泰山学者”专项工程经费(taqn202103054);山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2019QG010)的资助。

摘　　要：通过构建一个包含银行和生产性企业的两部门增长模型,本文系统考察人力资本偏向金融部门如何影响实体经济增长,并利用2008年中国经济普查数据、2003-2015年地级市数据及2011-2013年中国工业企业数据开展实证检验。理论分析表明,人力资本在金融部门与实体部门之间的配置结构对实体经济增长存在两种效应,依次为资本“挤入”效应和创新“挤出”效应,进而导致人力资本配置情况与实体经济增长率之间呈现倒“U”形关系。随后,计量结果为上述理论推断提供了系列经验证据,且机制检验证实人力资本配置到金融部门有助于促进信贷规模扩张。特别地,反事实框架的测算结果显示,人力资本有效配置将提升实体经济增长率约0.45%,而且贡献率随经济发展更加凸显。本文结论表明,应理性看待人力资本向金融部门的不断聚集,不以简单线性关系进行判断,要综合权衡资本“挤入”效应和创新“挤出”效应的相对重要性。The fundamental purpose of the financial sector is to serve the real economy.Currently,China's economic development is characterized by a“cold”real economy and a“hot”virtual economy.The financial sector is favored by social elites,while the real sector exhibits a sluggish trend.The mainstream explanation for this disconnect is that human capital has been overallocated to the financial sector,stifling innovation in the real sector and thus leading to a decline in real economic growth.However,given the information asymmetry between creditors and borrowers,increasing human capital in the financial sector also helps eliminate credit contract frictions,and result in credit expansion,which promotes real economic growth.To provide theoretical and practical reference for deepening financial supply-side structural reform and realizing an innovation-driven growth regime,this paper investigates how the allocation of human capital between the financial and real sectors affects real economic growth in China.In theory,the financial sector's human capital has ambiguous effects on real economic growth.On the one hand,it hinders real economic growth through the following channels:(i)crowding out labor and capital in the real sector;(ii)transferring profit from the real sector,weakening entrepreneurship,and reducing the intrinsic incentives of productive activities;and(iii)lowering the overall entrepreneurial ability.On the other hand,it promotes real economic growth through the following channels:(i)strengthening the ability of the financial sector to absorb social deposits via financial product innovation and industrial competition;(ii)alleviating the information asymmetry between creditors and borrowers and accurately identifying the ability of firms to repay loans;and(iii)improving the allocation of credit among firms with different financing constraints.This paper constructs a two-sector growth model consisting of banks and firms to investigate how the financial sector's human capital affects real economic growth.It t

关 键 词：金融部门 实体经济增长 人力资本配置 倒“U”形关系 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F424[经济管理—国民经济] F832F124