基于矩估计经验似然的公共交通对经济增长的影响分析  

The Impact of Public Transport on Economic Growth Based on Empirical Likelihood for Moment Conditions

作　　者：吴和成[1] 卢维学 万里洋 WU He-cheng;LU Wei-xue;WAN Li-yang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第21期21-28,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(16BGL033);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX19-0145)。

摘　　要：选取2000-2017年中国30个省级面板数据为研究样本,研究公共交通对经济增长的影响及拉动效应.首先,结合扩展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数理论构建公共交通系统影响的经济增长模型;其次,运用弹性系数理论构建公共交通系统影响的经济规模报酬统计量.最后,利用矩估计经验似然对模型进行求解.结果表明,提升公共交通客运水平能够显著促进地区经济增长;不同置信水平下经济规模报酬的置信区间存在较大幅度波动,即公共交通客运运输水平对经济增长的拉动效应没有达到合理预期,存在较大“资源浪费”.此外,与传统方法进行对比发现该方法具有明显优势.In this paper,panel data of 30 regions in China from 2000 to 2017 were selected as the research sample,to explore the impact of public transportation on economic growth and its pulling effect.Firstly,the economic growth model under the impact of public transportation is constructed by combining with the extended Cobb-Douglas production function model.Secondly,on the basis of the elastic coefficient theory,the economic return to scale under the influence of public transportation is constructed.Finally,the Empirical Likelihood Method of Moment Estimation is used to solve the above model.The results show that public transportation has a positive impact on economic growth,and the confidence interval of economic return to scale fluctuates greatly at different confidence levels,that is,the pull of public transport passenger level on economic growth does not reach reasonable expectations,and there is a large "waste of resources".In addition,we find that this method has significant advantages compared to traditional methods.

关 键 词：公共交通 经济增长 矩估计 经验似然 非参数估计 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F572[理学—概率论与数理统计] O212.1[理学—数学]