基于小波周期和FGM(1,1)模型的机场空气质量预测研究  

Research on Airport Air Quality Forecast Based on Wavelet Period and FGM(1,1)Model

作　　者：张耀 王湛[1] 于女 张梦雅 唐思嘉 ZHANG Yao;WANG Zhan;YU Nu;ZHANG Meng-ya;TANG Si-jia(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第21期82-92,共11页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：江苏省科研与实践创新计划项目基金(SJCX20-0067);南京航空航天大学新教师启动基金(90YAH19018);国家自然科学基金民航联合基金(U1933119)

摘　　要：小波周期分析技术可用于深度挖掘机场AQI的演变规律,有利于构建FGHM(1,1)模型,分时段治理机场空气质量.运用小波周期分析技术评估南京禄口国际机场AQI的主要周期,进而为FGM(1,1)模型确定最优预测周期,构建FGHM(1,1)模型.结果表明:机场AQI与城市AQI显著不相关,机场AQI呈区域特性;机场源CO和PM_(2.5)平均浓度分别是24小时环境暴露限值的1.85倍和1.20倍;小波周期分析技术能清淅揭示机场AQI以24小时为变化周期,基于“小时因子”构建的FGHM(1,1)模型的MAPE较FGM(1,1)模型降低了19.795%,相似且略低于ARIMA(1,1,1)模型的MAPE.The wavelet period analysis technique can be used to deeply explore the evolution law of airport AQI,which is beneficial to construct FGHM(1,1) model to control airport air quality in time.The wavelet period analysis technique is used to evaluate the main period of the AQI of Nanjing Lukou International Airport,and then the optimal forecast period is determined for the FGM(1,1) model to construct the FGHM(1,1) model.The results show that the airport AQI is significantly uncorrelated with the city AQI,and the airport AQI presents a regional characteristic.The average concentration of CO and PM;at the airport are 1.85 and 1.20 times the 24-hour environmental exposure limit,respectively.The wavelet period analysis technique can clearly reveal the airport AQI changes in 24 hours.The MAPE of the FGHM(1,1) model constructed based on the "hour factor" is 19.795% lower than that of the FGM(1,1) model,which is similar and slightly lower than that of the ARIMA(1,1,1)model.

关 键 词：南京禄口国际机场 小波周期 分数阶累加 FGM(1 1) 空气质量预测 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]