Nomograms for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients with Gingiva Squamous Cell Carcinoma:A Population-Based Study  

作　　者：Si-si YANG Xiao-huan ZHONG Hui-xin WANG An-jie MIN Wei-ming WANG 

机构地区：[1]Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery,Center of Stomatology,Xicmgya Hospital,Central South University,Changsha 410008,China [2]Department of Orthodontics,Center of Stomatology,Xiangya Hospital of Central South University,Changsha 410008,China

出　　处：《Current Medical Science》2021年第5期953-960,共8页当代医学科学（英文）

基　　金：supported by grants from National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81702708);Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(No.2018JJ3862,No.2017JJ2392,and No.2019JJ50979);Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Health Commission(No.B20180054);Changsha Science and Technology Project(No.kq1706072).

摘　　要：The use of the traditional American Joint Committee on Cancer(AJCC)staging system alone has limitations in predicting the survival of gingiva squamous cell carcinoma(GSCC)patients.We aimed to establish a comprehensive prognostic nomogram with a prognostic value similar to the AJCC system.Methods:Patients were identified from SEER database.Variables were selected by a backward stepwise selection method in a Cox regression model.A nomogram was used to predict cancer-specific survival rates for 3,5 and 10 years in patients with GSCC.Several basic features of model validation were used to evaluate the performance of the survival model:consistency index(C-index),receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration chart,net weight classification improvement(NRI),comprehensive discriminant improvement(IDI)and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:Multivariate analyses revealed that age,race,marital status,insurance,AJCC stage,pathology grade and surgery were risk factors for survival.In particular,the C-index,the area under the ROC curve(AUC)and the calibration plots showed good performance of the nomogram.Compared to the AJCC system,NRI and IDI showed that the nomogram has improved performance.Finally,the nomogram's 3-year and 5-year and 10-year DCA curves yield net benefits higher than traditional AJCC,whether training set or a validation set.Conclusion:We developed and validated the first GSCC prognosis nomogram,which has a better prognostic value than the separate AJCC staging system.Overall,the nomogram of this study is a valuable tool for clinical practice to consult patients and understand their risk for the next 3,5 and 10 years.

关 键 词：NOMOGRAM SEER gingiva squamous cell carcinoma cancer-specific survival population-based study 

分 类 号：R73[医药卫生—肿瘤]