基于系统动力学分析的2035年上海市交通发展模式探究  

The Development Pattern for Shanghai Traffic in 2035 Based on System Dynamics Analysis

作　　者：杨超[1,2] 张雪诺 崔轶坤 YANG Chao;ZHANG Xuenuo;CUI Yikun(Urban Mobility Institute,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学城市交通研究院,上海200092 [2]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804

出　　处：《交通与运输》2021年第6期83-88,共6页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：交通结构是反映交通需求特点和交通资源配置的关键指标,是区分交通模式的决定性因素。合理的交通结构能提升城市交通系统效率,促进城市交通可持续发展。面向2035年,首先,分析上海市客运交通系统中各因素的因果关系与反馈关系,构建城市客运交通结构演变系统动力学模型;其次,使用模型模拟既有发展模式下上海市2020—2035年的客运交通结构的演变,对比《上海市城市总体规划(2017—2035年)》中对2035年的规划目标发现,公交分担率未达到规划目标,公共交通在交通结构中占比不足;最后,借鉴香港与东京的交通发展模式,模拟轨道交通垄断型和公交主导型2种发展策略下上海市交通结构的演变,发现轨道交通和地面公交相协调形成公共交通主导,轨道交通、公交并重的交通发展模式更适合上海市未来交通的可持续发展。Traffic structure is a key indicator to reflect the characteristics of traffic demand and the allocation of traffic resources,and a decisive factor to distinguish traffic mode.Reasonable traffic structure can improve the efficiency of urban traffic system and promote the sustainable development of urban traffic.In view of 2035 in Shanghai,this paper firstly analyzes the causal relationship and feedback relationship of the factors in Shanghai passenger transport system,and constructs the system dynamics model of urban passenger transport structure evolution.Secondly,the model is used to simulate the evolution of passenger transport structure in Shanghai from 2020 to 2035 under the existing development mode.Compared with the 2035 planning target in"Shanghai City Master Plan(2017-2035)",it is found that the public transport share rate does not reach the planning target,and the public transport occupies an insufficient proportion in the transport structure.Finally,draw lessons from Hong Kong and Tokyo's transport development model,simulation of rail monopoly and bus under two kinds of development strategy,the evolution of the Shanghai traffic structure,found that the rail transit and bus transport coordination formation dominated by public transportation,rail,bus and transport development model is more suitable for Shanghai traffic sustainable development in the future.

关 键 词：交通结构 交通发展模式 系统动力学模型 出行方式 交通政策 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]