Bass、指数伽玛和混合韦布模型的实证比较:针对新产品市场渗透的研究  

An Empirical Comparison of Bass,Exponential Gamma and Mixed Weibull Models:For New Product Penetration Studying

作　　者：王高[1] 黄劲松[2] Wang Gao;Huang Jinsong(School of Economics&Management,Tsinghua University;School of Economics&Management,Beihang University,Beijing)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《营销科学学报（辑刊）》2007年第4期16-27,共12页Journal of Marketing Science

基　　金：国家自然基金资助项目编号:70572008,70772012。

摘　　要：虽然Bass模型、指数伽玛模型(MW模型)和混合书布模型(EG模型)在不同的研究中被认为是最优的市场渗透模型,但这种最优可能是有条件的,以往的研究并没有关注这三种模型的适用条件。本文针对10个新产品实证比较了三种模型,结果发现:①Bess模型早期预测误差很大,但是它对于包含拐点的数据能够较好地拟合和预测:②EG模型的早期预测精度高于MW和Bass模型,但它在中长期预测时精度不如Mw和Bass模型;③MW模型的拟合精度和中长期预测精度是三种模型中最优的。上述结论说明哪种模型是最优模型依赖于计算期的长短,这实际上整合了以往研究的结论。Bass model,Mixed Weibull model(MW model)and Exponential Gamma model(EG model)have been considered to be the best model for new product penetration forecasting.However,few researchers have compared these three models.By analyzing the penetration of ten new products,this paper identifies both the advantages and disadvantages of these three models.Results show that:(1)Bass model is of larger forecasting error during early calibration periods,but calibrate and forecast quite well when the inflection point is included in calibration data,(2)the.forecasting accuracy of EG model is better than Bass model and MW model when calibration periods are short but worse when calibration periods are over medium or long range,and(3)among these three models,the accuracy of calibration and forecasting of MW model is the best.Above findings indicate that whether a model is the best depends on the length of calibration periods.

关 键 词：新产品市场渗透 BASS模型 混合韦布模型 指数伽玛模型 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]