京津冀协同发展背景下的县域水资源安全诊断  

Assessing water resource security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at county level in the context of regional synergistic development

作　　者：李想[1,2,3] 郭丹红 刘家宏 尹冬勤[5] 李志威 许凤冉 邵薇薇[1] LI Xiang;GUO Danhong;LIU Jiahong;YIN Dongqin;LI Zhiwei;XU Fengran;SHAO Weiwei(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Key Laboratory of Sediment Science and Northern River Regulation of Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,Qinghai,China;Fujian Key Laboratoryof Green Buildings Technology,Fujian Construction Research Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350100,Fujian,China;College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]水利部泥沙科学与北方河流治理重点实验室,北京100038 [3]青海大学三江源生态与高原农牧业国家重点实验室,青海西宁810016 [4]福建省建研工程顾问有限公司福建省绿色建筑技术重点实验室,福建福州350100 [5]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100083 [6]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2021年第10期59-71,共13页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401401);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51979285,51739011)。

摘　　要：本文构建了以县域为基本单元的水资源安全诊断方法体系,开展了京津冀一体化格局初步形成的社会经济发展和需水量预测,测算了多年平均径流量和近、远期调水量,诊断了多情景组合的水资源安全情势。研究表明:一体化情景下,京津冀地区在维持经济社会快速发展的前提下,区域需水总量将得到有效控制,需水结构不断优化;无调水时,大部分县域水资源压力较大,中南部县域尤为突出;随着调水工程增补,水资源压力明显缓解,但缺水性质未发生根本变化;考虑远期规划调水,京津冀地区仍有近半数县(区)受到不同程度的缺水影响,缺水量约为41亿m^(3)/a。深入推进区域协同、高质量发展,开源和节流并举是不断提升水资源安全保障能力的有效途径。This paper proposes a methodology framework for county-level water resource security assessment.The socio-economic development and water demand are projected when the regional synergistic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jingjinji)region takes initial shape,the annual mean runoff as well as water from the inter-basin water diversion projects(WDP)in the near and distant futures are estimated,and the water resource security under different scenario combinations is assessed.The results show that in the future scenario,the socio-economic status maintains rapid development in the Jingjinji region.The total water demand in the Jingjinji region is effectively controlled,and the water demand structure is continuously optimized.When the WDP is not considered,the water resource stress in most counties,especially in the central and southern counties of the Jingjinji region,is high.With the construction of WDP,the water resource stress is significantly reduced.However,there is no fundamental change in the nature of water shortage.Even considering the distant future WDP,an estimation of nearly half of the total counties is affected by water shortage to varying degrees,and the water shortage is estimated as 4.1 billion m^(3)/a.It is an effective way to increase the guarantee capacity of water resource security in the Jingjinji region by further promoting the regional synergistic and high quality development,exploring new water resources and saving water.

关 键 词：京津冀 水资源 需水预测 水短缺指数 节水 空间分布 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]