江西省中小水电智慧气象服务技术研究及应用效果检验  

Technical Research and Validation of Application Effect ofSmart Meteorological Service for Small and MediumHydropower in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：谢克勇 张勇平 邓德文 毕晨 李三角 Xie Keyong;Zhang Yongping;Deng Dewen;Bi Chen;Li Sanjiao(Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center,Nanchang 330046,China;Xinyu Meteorological Bureau,Xinyu 338008,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省气象服务中心,江西南昌330096 [2]新余市气象局,江西新余338008

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2021年第2期152-158,共7页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：2020年江西省气象局重点科研项目(编号:JX2020Z07).

摘　　要：基于高精度DEM及水系数据的流域集雨区划分,研究了江西省中小水电站集雨区划定技术方法;通过对水库集雨区上降水预报和观测站点的实况两者对比分析,建立了基于库区的多模式本地化水库面雨量预报方法;通过模式参数化率定方法以及雨洪耦合来水量预报方法的研究,建立了水库来水量预报模型。利用2007—2020年水文数据以及降水实况和模式数据,检验了七一水库2020年逐7 d面雨量预报效果。检验结果表明,面雨量预报模型在0—3 d的平均预报准确率为70.1%;中雨和大雨量级的降水预报准确率分别为30.7%和28.3%,暴雨、大暴雨预报具有一定的指示意义;改进后的流量模拟效果进一步提升,强降水过程的流量预报效果明显改善。Based on high-precision DEM and water system data,the technical method of delimiting the catchment area of small and medium-sized hydropower stations in Jiangxi province is studied.A multi-mode localized reservoir area rainfall prediction method based on the reservoir area is established by comparing and analyzing the precipitation prediction on the reservoir rain collection area and the actual situation of observation stations.Through the study of model parametric calibration method and rain flood coupling water inflow prediction method,the reservoir water inflow prediction model is established.Based on the hydrological data from 2007 to 2020,the actual precipitation and model data,the prediction effect of rolling 7-day area rainfall of Qiyi reservoir in 2020 is tested.The test results show that the average prediction accuracy of area rainfall prediction model in 0-3 days is 70.1%.The accuracy of precipitation forecast of moderate rain and heavy rain is 30.7%and 28.3%respectively.The improved flow simulation effect is further improved,and the flow prediction effect of heavy precipitation process is significantly improved.

关 键 词：水库气象服务 来水增量 预报模型 参数优化 粒子群算法 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]