基于ARMA模型的河北鸭梨价格预测及预警  

Price Prediction and Early Warning of Hebei Ya Pear Based on ARMA Model

作　　者：牛桂草 周绩宏 马红燕[2] 杜晓东[3] 王俊芹[1] Niu Guicao;Zhou Jihong;Ma Hongyan;Du Xiaodong;Wang Junqin(School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China;Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics,Hebei Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050051,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北省农林科学院,河北石家庄050031 [3]河北省农林科学院农业信息与经济研究所,河北石家庄050051

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2021年第11期151-156,共6页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY115);河北省社会科学基金项目(HB19YJ017);河北省科技厅软科学研究专项(205576120D,215576133D);河北省现代农业产业技术体系水果产业创新团队建设项目(HBCT2018100301);河北省农林科学院创新工程项目(2019-4-9-5)。

摘　　要：对河北鸭梨批发市场价格进行预测和预警可为河北省鸭梨产业稳定健康发展提供参考。选取2014年1月—2021年5月河北鸭梨批发市场月度价格作为数据源,采用ARMA模型对2021年6月—2022年5月河北鸭梨批发市场月度价格进行短期预测;根据正态分布3σ原则,通过设置价格的波动区间,对2021年6月—2022年5月河北鸭梨批发市场月度价格进行警情分析。结果表明:ARMA(2,1)模型较好地拟合了鸭梨价格的变动趋势,预测值与实际值基本吻合;根据预测值对鸭梨价格变动情况做出预警判断,在自然条件和市场经济稳定条件下,2021年6月—2022年5月河北鸭梨批发市场价格出现警情的可能性较小。由此认为,河北鸭梨价格波动警源主要来自自然灾害程度和市场供给量。The wholesale price forecast and early warning of Hebei Ya pear can provide references for stable and healthy development of Ya pear industry in Hebei province. In this research, the monthly wholesale price data of Hebei Ya pear from January 2014 to May 2021 were selected as data sources, and the ARMA model was used to predict the monthly wholesale price from June 2021 to May 2022. According to the normal distribution 3σ principle, the warning status of monthly wholesale price of Hebei Ya pear from June 2021 to May 2022 was analyzed by setting price fluctuation ranges. The results showed that ARMA(2,1) model fitted the change trend of Ya pear price better, and the predicted value was basically consistent with the actual value. According to the predicted value, the early warning judgment on the price change of Ya pear was given out. Under stable natural and market conditions, there was little possibility of large fluctuations in Hebei Ya pear wholesale price from June 2021 to May 2022. The early warning of Hebei Ya pear price fluctuation was mainly caused by the degree of natural disasters and the change of market supply.

关 键 词：鸭梨 月度价格 ARMA模型 价格预测 价格预警 河北省 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学] F323.722.2[农业科学—园艺学]