基于Richards模型分析湖北省新冠肺炎暴发拐点与基本再生数  

Turning Point and Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in Hubei Province Based on Richards Model Analysis

作　　者：娄鹏威 黄玉婷 王凯 LOU Pengwei;HUANG Yuting;WANG Kai(Department of Medical Administration,Xinjiang Medical University Affiliated Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Urumqi 830002,Xinjiang,China;College of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学附属中医医院医务部,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院数学教研室,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2021年第11期1480-1484,1490,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：新疆天山创新团队计划(项目编号:2020D14020)。

摘　　要：目的湖北省新冠肺炎暴发已被有效控制,准确估计此次疫情暴发拐点日期和基本再生数R0,可为决策部门精准做好疫情防控提供理论依据。方法运用Richards模型拟合湖北省及武汉市2020-01-10/03-17新冠肺炎累计病例数,通过最小二乘法估计模型参数,监测出疫情暴发拐点,根据平均续代时间计算基本再生数R0。结果Richards模型拟合新冠肺炎累计病例数的趋势与实际数据波动吻合较好。模型估计湖北省新冠肺炎暴发拐点为32.8天(95%CI:31.9~33.7),日期为2020-02-12(95%CI:2020-02-10/12),武汉市新冠肺炎暴发拐点为33.5 d(95%CI:32.8~34.3),日期为2020-02-12(95%CI:2020-02-11/13),符合当日新增病例数为波峰值。估计基本再生数湖北省为R0=2.12(95%CI:1.88~2.39),武汉市为R0=2.30(95%CI:1.96~2.69),表明平均每位新冠肺炎感染者传播2.12~2.30位易感个体。结论Richards模型能拟合出湖北省及武汉市新冠肺炎数量总体波动趋势,准确估计出疫情暴发拐点与基本再生数,为预防疫情再次爆发或流行具有指导价值。Objective The outbreak of Novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)in Hubei Province has been effectively controlled.Accurate estimation of the outbreak turning point date and the basic reproduction number R0 can provide a theoretical basis for decision-making departments to accurately and properly prevent and control the disease.Methods The Richards model was used to fit the cumulative number of COVID-19 from January 10 to March 17,2020 in Hubei Province and Wuhan City.The model parameters were estimated by the least squares,the outbreak turning point was monitored,and the basic reproduction number(R0)was calculated based on the mean serial interval.Results Real cases data and the fitted curve match quite well by using the Richards model.We estimated the outbreak turning point for COVID-19 in Hubei province to be 32.8 days(95%CI:31.9~33.7)with date of 02/12(95%CI:02/10-02/12),and the outbreak turning point in Wuhan to be 33.5 days(95%CI:32.8~34.3)with date of 02/12(95%CI:02/11-02/13),consistent with a wave peak in the number of new cases reported on the day of 02/12.The estimated basic reproduction number(R0)was 2.12(95%CI:1.88~2.39)in Hubei Province and 2.30(95%CI:1.96~2.69)in Wuhan City.An average of 2.12-2.30 susceptible individuals can be transmitted by per COVID-19 infected case.Conclusion We can fit the overall fluctuation trend of COVID-19 in Hubei Province and Wuhan City,and accurately estimate the outbreak turning point and the R0,providing instructive value for preventing the re-emergence or epidemic.

关 键 词：Richards模型 新冠肺炎 拐点 基本再生数 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]