食品安全风险库兹涅茨曲线存在吗?--基于网络报道省际事件的经验证据  

Does the Food Safety Risk Kuznets Curve Exist?--Evidence from the Provincial Food Safety Incidents Reported on the Internet

作　　者：尹世久[1] 王敬斌 吴林海 YIN Shi-jiu;WANG Jing-bin;WU Lin-hai(Research Center for Food Safety and Agriculture Green Development,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276826,Shandong,China;Institute for Food Safety Risk Management,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214135,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学食品安全与农业绿色发展研究中心,山东日照276826 [2]江南大学食品安全风险治理研究院,江苏无锡214135

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2021年第12期3-15,共13页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“食品安全风险社会共治与跨界合作机制研究”(20&ZD117)。

摘　　要：经验数据表明,食品安全风险与经济增长之间可能存在某种规律性关系。从食品安全风险来源及其形成机理出发,提出食品安全风险的库兹涅茨理论假说及其在地域空间上的相关性假设,采用网络大数据挖掘工具采集2005—2019年间主流网络媒体报道的食品安全事件的省际面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型进行实证检验。研究表明:食品安全风险库兹涅茨曲线的“拐点”保守估计在人均GDP 15172元(按照2005年基期价格折算)附近,当前我国大多数省份已经越过“倒U型”曲线拐点,食品安全事件发生数量开始进入下降阶段;食品安全事件存在空间相关性,相邻省份城市化水平和规模以上食品工业产值对本省(区、市)事件发生数量具有负向影响,而农业产值则会带来显著的正向影响。因此,应该充分认识到我国现阶段食品安全形势与当前所处经济发展阶段紧密相关,高度重视食品安全,加快治理体系与治理能力现代化步伐,努力提前跨越食品安全风险“拐点”。此外,食品安全问题存在空间上的溢出效应,彰显出食品安全风险跨地域合作治理的重要性,地方政府应该建立跨地域合作治理机制,尤其是要以加工食品风险在供应链条上的跨地域流动与食用农产品风险的累积性为重点,健全食品可追溯体系,协同治理食品安全风险。Evidence data shows that there is some certain regularity relation between food safety risk and economic growth.The Kuznets hypothesis of food safety risk and spatial correlation hypothesis is proposed based on the source and formation mechanism of food safety risk.The authors use network data mining tools to collect inter-provincial panel data of food safety incidents reported by mainstream Internet medias from 2005 to 2019 and use the Spatial Dubin Model to carry out the empirical test.It is found that,first,the turning point is roughly located around 15,172 yuan per capita GDP taking the year 2005 as the base year;at present,most provinces in China have surpassed the“turning point”;and the number of food safety incidents has begun to decline.Second,there is a spatial correlation between food safety incidents in neighboring provinces;the urbanization levels and the output values of the food industry above scale in neighboring regions have negative impact on the number of incidents in certain province;and the agricultural output value in neighboring regions will have a significant positive effect on this.We should fully understand the close relation between the current situation of food safety in China and the current stage of economic development,pay more attention to food safety,accelerate the modernization of governing system and our capacity for governing,and do our best to surpass the“turning point”of food safety risk in advance.Besides,there is the spatial spillover effect in food safety,which demonstrates the importance of food safety related inter-regional cooperation;local governments should formulate the inter-regional cooperative governing mechanism taking the inter-regional flow of processed-food risk along the supply chain and the accumulation of agricultural-food risk as the focus,perfect the traceability system for food,and promote coordination in food safety risk governing.

关 键 词：食品安全风险 经济增长 库兹涅茨假说 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济]