合肥市大气颗粒物污染对成人内科门诊量影响的时间序列分析  

Effects of Atmospheric Particulate Matters on the Outpatient Visits of Adult Internal Medicine in Hefei,Anhui Province,China:A Time Series Analysis

作　　者：朱昱 肖长春[1] 马子建[1] ZHU Yu;XIAO Changchun;MA Zijian

机构地区：[1]合肥市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2021年第4期348-354,共7页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：国家空气污染对人群健康影响监测项目。

摘　　要：目的探讨合肥市大气颗粒物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10))暴露对成人内科门诊量的影响。方法收集合肥市2016—2018年逐日大气污染物监测资料、气象资料及成人内科日门诊量资料。采用广义相加模型(GAM)的时间序列分析方法,控制时间趋势、气象因素、星期几效应等混杂因素,评估颗粒物浓度对成人内科门诊量的影响,包括滞后效应(lag0~lag7 d)和累积滞后效应(lag01~lag07 d),同时分析引入其他污染物后,对大气颗粒物浓度与成人内科门诊量效应的影响。计算大气颗粒物浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),成人内科门诊量增加的超额风险(ER)及95%可信区间(95%CI)。结果合肥市大气颗粒物浓度升高与成人内科日门诊量增加存在关联。PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^(3),成人内科日门诊总量、呼吸系统疾病日门诊量和循环系统疾病日门诊量效应值分别在lag04、lag07和lag04 d达到最大,ER(95%CI)分别为1.04%(0.39%~1.70%)、0.74%(0.06%~1.43%)和2.61%(1.27%~3.96%);PM_(10)每升高10μg/m^(3),成人内科日门诊总量和呼吸系统疾病日门诊量效应值分别在lag0和lag07达到最大,ER(95%CI)分别为0.41%(0.06%~0.76%)和0.77%(0.29%~1.26%)。结论合肥市PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度升高可能会增加成人内科门诊量,且具有一定的滞后性。Objective To explore the effects of exposure to atmospheric particulate matters(PM_(2.5),PM_(10))on the outpatient visits of adult internal medicine in Hefei,Anhui province,China.Methods Daily air pollutant monitoring data,meteorological data,and outpatient visits of adult internal medicine in Hefei from 2016 to 2018 were collected.Controlling for the temporal trend,meteorological factors,and day-of-the-week effect,a time series analysis using a generalized additive model(GAM)was applied to evaluating the effects of the concentrations of atmospheric particulates on the outpatient visits,including lag effect(lag0 d to lag7 d)and cumulative lag effect(lag01 d to lag07 d),and analyzing how other pollutants affected the effects.The excess risk(ER)of the increased outpatient visits and its 95%CI were calculated for every 10μg/m^(3) increase in particulate concentrations.Results The increased contentrations of atmospheric particulates were associated with the elevated daily outpatient visits of adult internal medicine in Hefei.Every 10μg/m^(3) increase in PM_(2.5) concentration showed the strongest effects on the total daily visits on lag04,the daily visits of respiratory on lag07 d,and the daily visits of cardiovascular on lag04 d,with ER(95%CI)being 1.04%(0.39%-1.70%),0.74%(0.06%-1.43%),and 2.61%(1.27%-3.96%),respectively.Every 10μg/m^(3) increase in PM_(10) concentration had the strongest effects on the total daily visits on lag0 d and the daily visits of respiratory on lag07 d,with ER(95%CI)being 0.41%(0.06%-0.76%)and 0.77%(0.29%-1.26%),respectively.Conclusion The increase in the concentrations of PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) may increase the outpatient visits of adult internal medicine in Hefei,and have a lag effect.

关 键 词：大气颗粒物 呼吸系统疾病 循环系统疾病 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]