Retracing Realistic Disaster Scenarios from Archival Sources:A Key Tool for Disaster Risk Reduction  

作　　者：Bashir Ahmad Akhtar Alam M.Sultan Bhat Khurshid Ahmad Bhat Jeelani Inaam ul Haq Hakim Farooq Ahmad Junaid Qadir 

机构地区：[1]Department of Geology,Nawakadal School,Srinagar 190002,India [2]Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction,University College London,WCIE 6BT,UK [3]Department of Geography and Regional Development,University of Kashmir,Srinagar 190006,India [4]Department of Statistics,Chanapora School,Srinagar 190015,India [5]Department of Geology,Aligarh Muslim University,Aligarh 202002,India

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2021年第5期635-648,共14页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

摘　　要：Disaster scenarios are constructed by integrating natural hazard phenomena and social science sources of information.We profiled 51 natural hazard events of nineteenth century Kashmir that provide insights into the impacts of varying degree of severity that spread through the socioeconomic and political systems,influenced adaptation,and increased the consequences of the resulting disasters.The root cause of these disasters was embedded in the social,natural,and political economic systems of their time,where vulnerabilities overlapped and interacted periodically with successive colonial regimes and acted as tipping points.The combined effect of successive colonial regimes,inept administration,rigid political economy,and natural hazards made the situation go from bad to worse and reduced Kashmir to the depths of distress and subjugation.Over the arc of the nineteenth century,a series of disasters led the Kashmiri population to learn how to live with disasters and minimize risk,bringing about the evolution of social and environmental knowledge.Understanding the natural hazard vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley through archival narratives can help in scenario building to translate findings into formats that reduce related risk now as it did then.The resulting information can be useful for regional design,planning,and policy responses to promote disaster risk reduction.

关 键 词：Disaster risk reduction Historical disasters KASHMIR Nineteenth-century disasters Socioeconomic vulnerability 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]