基于改进灰色模型预测民航事故征候数  

Forecast of Civil Aviation Accident Symptoms Based on Improved Grey Model

作　　者：王剑辉[1] 李翰之 WANG Jianhui;LI Hanzhi(Air Traffic Manage College, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2021年第12期134-136,140,共4页Microcomputer Applications

摘　　要：为了减小民航事故发生率,对民航事故征候数进行预测分析,探究事故征候的特征及其分布规律。以中国民航2000—2015年的事故征候数为基础数据,建立了预测中国民航事故征候数的改进灰色加权马尔科夫模型结合更新数据序列的方法,预测了2016—2018年的民航事故征候数,预测平均精度达到90.19%,验证了模型的适用性和精确性。以2000—2018年的事故征候数为基础数据,预测2019—2023年中国民航事故征候数为637、679、720、820、929。提出的利用更新数据序列的方法结合改进的灰色马尔科夫模型,为民航事故征候数的中长期预测提供了一种新方法。In order to reduce the incidence of civil aviation accidents,this paper predicts and analyzes the number of civil aviation accidents,and explores the characteristics of accidents.Based on the number of accidents symptoms in China's civil aviation from 2000 to 2015,the paper establishes an improved grey-weighted Markovian model combined with the method of updating the data sequence to predict the number of civil aviation accidents symptoms from 2016 to 2018.The average prediction accuracy reaches 90.19%,which verifies the applicability and accuracy of the model.Then the paper based on the number of incidents from 2000 to 2018 predicts the number of civil aviation incidents in China from 2019 to 2023.The results are 637,679,720,820 and 929.The method of using the updated data sequence proposed in the article combined with the improved grey Markovian model provides a new way for the medium-and long-term predictions of the number of civil aviation accidents.

关 键 词：改进灰色模型 马尔科夫链 民航事故征候 中长期预测 事故预测 

分 类 号：V328.2[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]