小宗农产品价格波动特征及其影响因素研究——以大蒜类耐储藏农产品为例  

Characteristics of and Influencing factors of of Small-scale Agricultural Product in China——A Case Study of Shelf-stable Agricultural Products as Garlic

作　　者：姚升(翻译) Yao Sheng

机构地区：[1]安徽省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2021年第8期100-103,186,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(编号:1808085MG225);2020年度合肥市软科学研究项目(编号:2020020);安徽省农业科学院学科建设专项项目(2021YL092)。

摘　　要：对小宗农产品价格波动影响因素的分析,旨在消除价格波动造成的负面影响。本文以大蒜为例,通过使用MSVAR模型,论证气象因素、生产成本和出口量对大蒜价格波动的非线性关系。研究发现:大蒜价格与其影响因素之间的动态关系在不同区制中存在明显的异质性。在大蒜价格波动剧烈区制中,大蒜自身价格、生长期气温、货币供给量是持续推动价格上升的主要动力;而生长期降水量、生长期日照时间、出口量、利率和生产价格指数的增加则会刺激价格下降。研究进一步从优化对中间环节的调控、规范大蒜电子交易市场、完善全国性的大蒜信息平台等方面提出优化小宗农产品价格调控的政策建议。Through analysis of the influence factors of the price fluctuation of shelf-stable small-scale agricultural product, this thesis intended to reduce or eliminate the negative impacts of price fluctuation. By taking garlic as an example, this study empirically analyzes the dynamic nonlinear relationships between meteorological factors,monetary policy, production costs, exports and price fluctuation of shelf-stable small-scale agricultural product by using Markov regime switching models. The results show that dynamic nonlinear relationships between garlic price and influential factors are very different in different scenes. In a period of drastic fluctuation of garlic, garlic price itself, temperature and M2 are the driving force behind the garlic price growth, while rainfall, sunlight, export, interest rates and production costs are the main factors that make garlic price down. This paper further presents the policy suggestions of price control from the aspects of optimization of intermediate links, regulation electronic market, and perfection of national garlic information platform.

关 键 词：小宗农产品 大蒜价格 货币流动性 气象影响 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]