我国人力资本变迁70年:人口转型与教育提升的双重视角  

China’s Human Capital in the Past Seventy Years:Aspects from Demographic Transition and Education Improvement

作　　者：张琼[1,2] 张钟文[1,3] Zhang Qiong;Zhang Zhongwen

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院 [2]清华大学中国经济社会数据研究中心 [3]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2021年第11期47-59,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“高校毕业生基层就业与乡村振兴的共赢设计——影响因素与长效机制的实验与实证”(72003188);国家社会科学基金青年项目“政府干预、资源错配与全要素生产率研究”(18CJL017)。

摘　　要：人力资本是经济增长和社会变迁的重要影响因素,但经验研究中如何估计这一指标却存在很大分歧。本文遵循一阶马尔可夫过程,并基于大规模微观个体抽样数据所得关键参数的分布特征,模拟和测算了我国1950—2020年间全国和各地区各年份人力资本存量及人均人力资本水平,并从人口转型和教育提升两个角度考察70年间人力资本变迁的内在机制。研究发现,首先,不同标准所得人力资本存量的增长速度存在较大差异,但均随时间推移不断趋缓;人口转型相比于教育提升在70年间的贡献略大。早期人力资本存量增加主要源于人口转型所实现的人口红利,而近年来教育提升对人力资本存量的增长贡献愈加明显。其次,各地区受教育程度差异较大,均随时间显著提高但变化趋势不尽一致;1950—2020年间,各地区人均人力资本随时间推移表现出较为明显的相对收敛特征。本文认为,教育提升可以成为促进我国人力资本进一步提升的重要举措。Although human capital is fundamental for economic growth and social transformation,there is not yet a consensus on how to estimate this indicator empirically. Based on the distributional characteristics of key parameters estimated from large-scale micro sampling data,this article simulates and forecasts China’s national and provincial human capital stock and per capita human capital by year for the period from 1950 to 2020,following firstorder Markov process. After that,the internal mechanism of human capital changes in the past 70 years is investigated from the perspectives of demographic transition and improvement in education. It finds that considerable variation exists between the growth rates of human capital stock obtained through different methods,though they all gradually slow down over time. In the past 70 years,demographic transition has contributed slightly more to the growth of human capital compared with education improvement. The increase in China’s human capital stock comes mainly from the demographic dividend in early years,and increasingly from improvement in education in recent years. Second,there is a prominent gap in educational attainment among provinces,and although considerable improvement has been observed in all provinces,the trajectories are not necessarily similar. Between 1950 and 2020,convergence has been observed among all provinces over time. This paper argues that improving education can be an important approach to further enhance the human capital of China.

关 键 词：人力资本 人口年龄结构 年龄别受教育程度 人口转型 教育提升 

分 类 号：C829.29[社会学—统计学]