转型期内中国能源产业如何升级?基于面板数据的实证研究  

How to Upgrade China’s Energy Industry in the Period of Transition?Empirical Study Based on Panel Data

作　　者：刘平阔 卢存禹 黑朝晖 Liu Pingkuo;Lu Cunyu;He Zhaohui(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海200090

出　　处：《技术经济》2021年第11期94-111,共18页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“绿色低碳发展中能源转型的路径匹配选择机制:产业激励的视角”(72103128);上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究领域重点项目“‘新基建’与‘产业数字化’框架下长三角电力行业‘多站融合’的业务场景匹配策略与可行性评估”(21692109400)。

摘　　要：在"双碳"目标下,中国能源产业升级不仅体现制度层面的要求,而且成为行为层面的必然。界定了"能源产业比较优势""能源产业优势演进"及"能源产业升级Motivation-Ability-Opportunity(MAO)",选取了2009—2019年的相关数据,从区域及全国两个层面构建计量经济模型;聚焦转型期内"产业升级的主要影响因素"和"产业升级路径选择的主要影响因素"。研究表明:制度层面,中国能源产业虽有优势,但仍存在发展"惰性",应选择"渐进式"升级路径;组织层面,各区域能源产业仍普遍处于"升级未成功"或"保持比较优势"的非理想状态;产品层面,中国能源产业的能源替代-互补关系存在明显的区域差异,且化石能源产业未能达到发展预期。因此其仍需继续推进转型升级。From the objective of"strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060",the upgrading of energy industry is the institutional appeal not only,but also the behavioral necessity. Thus,three concepts of the Comparative Advantage of Energy Industry,the Evolution of Energy Industry Advantage,as well as the motivation-abilityopportunity(MAO)of energy industrial upgrading are defined,and an econometric model from both the regional and the national level by selecting relevant statistical data from 2009—2019 is built. The empirical research is aimed at analyzing the"main influencing factors of industrial upgrading"and the"major influencing factors of pathway selection for industrial upgrading"during the transition period. The results show as follows. At the institutional level,although China’s energy industry has comparative advantages,there is still"inertia"in its development,making a progressive upgrading pathway accessible. At the organizational level,the regional energy industry as a whole is still in a non-ideal state of"unsuccessful upgrading"or"maintaining comparative advantage". At the product level,there are obvious regional differences in the energy substitution-complementary relationship,and the fossil energy industry has failed to meet the development expectations hence it still needs to continue to promote the transformation and upgrading.

关 键 词：能源产业升级 显性比较优势 面板数据 路径选择 影响因素分析 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理] F426[经济管理—国民经济]