多参量CF-GERT网络作用下的复杂系统风险管控  

Risk Management of Complex System under CF-GERT Network of Multi-parameter Variables

作　　者：董文杰[1] 刘思峰[1] 陶良彦[1] 方志耕[1] 张习习 DONG Wen-jie;LIU Si-feng;TAO Liang-yan;FANG Zhi-geng;ZHANG Xi-xi(College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China;Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd, Shanghai 201206, China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]中国商用飞机有限责任公司上海飞机设计研究院,上海201206

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2021年第11期92-98,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671091,72071111);校人才科研启动基础基金(1009-YAH21001)。

摘　　要：复杂产品研制过程中,由于里程碑事件间的传递活动上包含多个性能参数且部分参数具有不确定性的随机分布特征,运用传统GERT网络算法进行解析会遗漏某些信息,从而使对项目目标的评定和优化变得异常困难,甚至出现重大风险。本文把复杂装备的研制过程看作是由一系列事件组成的整个网络系统,通过定义以随机变量特征函数(Characteristic Function)和传递概率之积作为等价传递关系的CF-GERT网络,研究了复杂产品研制活动状态之间具有多个独立参数变量时的建模过程和解析式算法。以某型号微小卫星的研制流程为例,探究多个特性参数同时作用时事件成功的概率和变量的数字特征。分析微小卫星研制成功率较低的原因,并对其性能指标进行均衡优化,可以为产品研制规避风险提供支持。In the process of complex product development,as the activities between milestone events contain multiple characteristic parameters and some parameters have uncertain stochastic distribution features,the analysis of traditional GERT network based on moment generating function misses some information,so that the assessment and optimization for project objectives become extremely difficult.In this paper,the development of complex equipment isregarded as an entire network system,which is constituted by a series of events.By defining CF-GERT network whose equivalent transmission relationship is made up of characteristic function and the probability of transmission,when there are multiple independent parameter variables between the state of product development activitiesthe analytical algorithm of complex equipment is studied.Taking the development process of a micro satellite as an example,the probability of success which is influenced by whole star weight,development cost,development schedule and other characteristic parameters of the event simultaneously is researched.By analyzing the reasons for low success rate,we can balance and optimize the performance indexes of the microsatellite,which can support risk management in the process of product research and development.

关 键 词：随机网络 复杂装备研制 多参数变量 解析式算法 特征函数 风险管控 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学] N945.16[自然科学总论—系统科学]