地球自转速度变化与全球气温变化的相关性研究  

Study on the Correlation Between the Change of Earth Rotation Speed and the Change of Global Temperature

作　　者：魏二虎[1] 李岩林 韩玉琴 刘经南[2] WEI Erhu;LI Yanlin;HAN Yuqin;LIU Jingnan(School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China 2;GNSS Research Center,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学卫星导航定位技术研究中心,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《测绘地理信息》2021年第6期1-7,共7页Journal of Geomatics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503600);国家自然科学基金(41874036)。

摘　　要：地球自转速度变化是导致全球气候变暖的重要原因之一,而探讨地球自转速度变化与气温变化的影响的相关性,并尝试建立一定的相关性模型是其中一种研究方式。首先分别利用地球自转速率数据与全球气温数据分析与建模,并判断模型温度预测的可行性,发现仅可进行短期温度预测;研究全球温度数据与地球自转速度变化数据相关性,进行相关性分析以及显著性检验,可知二者有强正相关性;最后研究气温预测的可行性,对气温和自转速率数据回归拟合,利用拟合公式,进行实际与预测的地球自转速率温度预测实验,结果证明推测方法可行。实验以IERS官网获取的日详细地球自转速度变化数据,以及伯克利地球组织获取的全球气温数据为例。The change of Earth’s rotation speed is one of the important causes of global warming,and exploring the correlation between the change of Earth’s rotation speed and the influence of temperature change and trying to establish a certain correlation model is one of the research methods.Firstly,the earth rotation rate data and global temperature data were analyzed and modeled respectively,and the feasibility of temperature prediction was judged.Then the correlation between the global temperature data and the change of the earth’s rotation speed is studied,and the correlation analysis and significance test are carried out.Finally,the feasibility of temperature prediction is studied,and the temperature and rotation rate data are regression fitted.Using the fitting formula,the actual and predicted Earth rotation rate temperature prediction experiment is carried out.The experiment took the daily detailed earth rotation speed change data obtained from the official website of IERS and all kinds of global temperature data obtained from the official website of Berkeley Earth Organization as examples for research and analysis.

关 键 词：地球自转速度变化 全球气温变化 数学建模 相关性 温度预测 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]