基于CVaR-TSP的黑龙江城市水资源配置及风险管理  

Urban water resources allocation and risk management in Heilongjiang Province based on CVaR-TSP

作　　者：姜秋香 曹璐 王子龙 王天 赵蚰竹 李鑫莹 何晓龙 JIANG Qiuxiang;CAO Lu;WANG Zilong;WANG Tian;ZHAO Youzhu;LI Xinying;HE Xiaolong(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2022年第1期40-46,共7页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51679040,42071243);黑龙江省科学基金(YQ2020E001)。

摘　　要：采用区间两阶段随机规划模型对不同来水水平、不同风险偏好的黑龙江省各城市进行水资源优化配置,解决了水资源系统中资源优化分配和不确定性等问题,利用条件风险价值衡量水资源系统中存在的风险,从而在规避风险的同时使得经济收益最大化。结果表明:不考虑风险偏好时,低、中、高来水情景下黑龙江经济总收益分别为5245.35亿~7933.32亿元、8616.64亿~9625.80亿元和1530.50亿元;风险偏好为0.1~0.9时,各城市三次产业的分配水量随着风险偏好的增加而减少,管理者可根据不同产业厌恶风险的程度来选择适合的配置水量方案。Two-stage Stochastic Programming(TSP)was used to optimize the allocation of water resources between cities in Heilongjiang Province with different inflow and risk levels,and the problems of optimal allocation and uncertainty in water resources system were solved.Conditional value at risk(CVaR)was used to measure the risks in water resources system to avoid the risks and maximize the economic benefits.When risk preference is not taken into account,the total revenue of Heilongjiang under the low,medium and high scenarios are(524.535~793.332)billion yuan,(861.664~962.580)billion yuan and 153.050 billion yuan respectively.When the risk preference value is from 0.1 to 0.9,the amount of water allocated by each city’s tertiary industries decreases with the increase of risk preference,and the administrators can choose appropriate water allocation schemes according to the degree of risk aversion of different industries.This study provides references for scientific allocation of urban water resources management.

关 键 词：水资源 TSP模型 不确定性 CVAR模型 水资源管理 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]