基于ND-GAIN模型的河南省农业抗灾能力评价  

Evaluation of agricultural disaster resilience in Henan Province based on ND-GAIN model

作　　者：韩红[1] 冯光辉[1] 邓国取[1] HAN Hong;FENG Guanghui;DENG Guoqu(School of Management,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang 471023,China)

机构地区：[1]河南科技大学管理学院,河南洛阳471023

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2022年第1期67-74,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(15AGL013);中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题(CEAZY2019JZ09);河南省社科规划项目(2019BJJ030)。

摘　　要：借鉴美国圣母大学全球气候适应指数(ND-GAIN)评价模型,采用熵权法确定各因子权重,构建河南省农业抗灾能力指标评价体系和模型,分别从脆弱程度和准备程度两个方面对河南省农业抗灾能力进行了分析,探讨了河南省18个地市2010—2018年农业抗灾能力的强弱演化、空间分布特征以及主要影响因素,并利用ArcGIS软件绘制其抗灾能力空间分布图。结果表明:2010—2018年河南省农业抗灾能力呈上升态势;除郑州、洛阳以及南阳等部分地市外,河南省农业抗灾能力水平整体偏低,且存在显著的地区差异;整体呈现西部高、东南低、南北偏弱的趋势,其中郑州市综合得分最高,鹤壁市综合得分最低;脆弱性指数差异较小,准备程度指数差异较大,准备程度差异是造成农业抗灾能力水平明显差异的主要原因。The evaluation system and model of agricultural resilience index in Henan Province were constructed based on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index(ND-GAIN)model developed by University of Notre Dame,and the entropy weight method was used to determine the weight of each factor.The environment of agricultural resilience in Henan from the aspects of vulnerability and preparation degree was investigated respectively.The evolution,spatial distribution and main influencing factors of agricultural resilience in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2010 to 2018 was discussed,and the spatial map of the resilience grades was drawn by ArcGIS software.The results show that the general agricultural resilience of Henan Province is on the rise but however,except for Zhengzhou,Luoyang and Nanyang,the overall level of agricultural resilience is still low with significant regional differences.The overall trend is high in the west,low in the southeast and weaker in the north and south,among which Zhengzhou and Hebi has the highest and lowest comprehensive score respectively.The difference in vulnerability index is relatively small,and the difference in readiness index is relatively large,which is the main reason for the obvious difference of agricultural disaster resistance.

关 键 词：农业抗灾能力 ND-GAIN评价模型 脆弱性 雷达图 河南省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]