基于AHP-熵权法的水环境承载力模糊综合评价  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on AHP-Entropy Method

作　　者：王晓艳 章四龙[2,3] 刘磊 WANG Xiaoyan;ZHANG Silong;LIU Lei(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Water Security Research Institute,Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai,Zhuhai 519087,China;Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security,Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai,Zhuhai 519087,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学珠海校区水安全研究院,广东珠海519087 [3]北京师范大学珠海校区粤港水安全保障联合实验室,广东珠海519087

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2021年第9期206-212,共7页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2020B1212030005)。

摘　　要：针对水环境承载力评价存在的不确定性和模糊性问题,该研究采用层次分析法和熵权法进行组合赋权,利用模糊综合评价法对粤港澳大湾区9个城市的水环境承载力进行评价,并引入障碍度模型确定影响水环境承载力的主要障碍度因素。结果表明:2013-2018年9个城市的水环境承载力总体呈上升趋势,但城市间的变化差异明显;9个城市水环境承载力的障碍指标差异明显,其中人均水资源量以20.7%的障碍度均值成为首要障碍度指标;通过障碍度频率分析可得9个城市的主要障碍度指标包括人均水资源量、生态用水率、万元GDP污(废)水排放量和第三产业比重,这4项指标的频率均为89%。将该方法应用于区域水环境承载力的评价,其结果可为区域水环境的管理和相关政策的制定提供依据。In order to solve the uncertainty and fuzziness of water environmental carrying capacity evaluation,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method were used to determine the weight,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and obstacle degree model were used to evaluate and analyse the water environmental carrying capacity and the main obstacle factors of 9 cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.The results indicated that from 2013 to 2018,the water environment carrying capacity of 9 cities showed an overall upward trend,but the differences between cities were obvious.From the analysis of obstacle degree,the obstacle indexes of water environment carrying capacity in 9 cities mainly focus on water resource subsystem and water environment subsystem.The primary obstacle index was water resources per capita,with an average obstacle degree of 20.7%.According to the frequency analysis of obstacle degree,the main obstacle degree indexes of the 9 cities were water resources per capita,ecological water consumption rate,wastewater discharge of ten thousand yuan GDP and proportion of the tertiary industry.The frequency of these four indexes was 89%.This method can be applied to the evaluation of regional water environment carrying capacity,and the results can provide a basis for the management of regional water environment and the formulation of relevant policies.

关 键 词：水环境承载力 AHP-熵权法 模糊综合评价 障碍度 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]