中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响  

Influence of multi-dimensional characteristics and evolution of industrial structure on carbon emissions at provincial scale in China

作　　者：原嫄[1] 周洁 YUAN Yuan;ZHOU Jie(Northwestern Polytechnical University,School of Humanities,Economics and Law,Xi'an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学人文与经法学院,西安710072

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2021年第12期3186-3202,共17页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41601117);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(3102018jcc016)。

摘　　要：在中国转向高质量发展及2030年前达到碳排放峰值的背景下,寻找保证经济增长的低碳减排途径是学界研究的热点。利用中国2005—2017年省域面板数据,建立SAR模型,并按八大经济区分别构建PECM模型,研究中国省域尺度下产业结构多维度特征及演化对碳排放的影响,主要结论如下:(1)中国省域碳排放具有显著的时滞性和空间溢出效应。(2)全国视角下,产业结构合理化水平提升对碳排放呈抑制作用,且存在负向空间溢出效应;而产业结构高度化对碳排放呈促进作用,且存在正向空间溢出效应,总体上处于"倒U型"曲线左侧。(3)八大经济区视角下,随着经济发展水平的提高,产业结构合理化水平提升总体上能够抑制碳排放,而产业结构高度化水平提升则呈现明显的"倒U型"趋势特征,具有两面性,发达地区呈现抑制效应,欠发达地区则相反;当前处于"倒U型"曲线右侧的区域多为发达地区。因此,由产业结构高度化提升导致碳排放量的增加依然属于中国多数省份当前发展的固有阶段性特征,而产业结构合理化提升在总体上能够拉动碳排放峰值前移,促使碳排放早日达峰。欠发达地区不应以增大三产份额为目标,盲目推动产业结构高度化水平提升,这将很有可能对区域经济发展产生负面影响;而产业结构合理化水平提升是既能够适应中国多数省份当前发展惯性,同时又能促进减排或排放降速的有效途径。Under China’s goal of achieving high-quality development and reaching the peak of carbon emissions before 2030,it has become a hot topic of academic research to find a lowcarbon way to ensure economic growth.Based on the panel data of provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2017,this paper studied the impact of multi-dimensional characteristics and evolution of industrial structure on carbon emissions at the provincial scale by establishing SAR model and PECM with eight economic regions as the study area.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Regional carbon emissions have significant time delay and spatial spillover effect.(2)From the national perspective,the improvement of industrial structure rationalization level can effectively inhibit carbon emissions,and has negative spatial spillover effect.However,the elevation of industrial structure supererogation level can effectively promote carbon emissions,and has positive spatial spillover effect,which is generally reflected on the left side of the"inverted-U"curve.(3)From the perspective of the eight economic regions,with the development of economy,the evolution of the industrial structure rationalization level can inhibit carbon emissions on the whole,while the evolution of the industrial structure supererogation level showed a trend of obvious"inverted U"features,which has two sides,with the inhibition effect in developed regions and the opposite in underdeveloped regions.The regions in the declining area of the"inverted-U"curve are mostly developed regions.The increasing carbon emissions caused by the elevation of industrial structure supererogation level is still an inherent periodic characteristic of the current development in most Chinese provinces and regions.However,improving the level of industrial structure rationalization will generally push ahead with the peak of carbon emissions and accelerate the process to reach the peak of carbon emissions.This paper argues that the underdeveloped regions should not aim at increasing the share of tertiary in

关 键 词：碳排放 产业结构 空间溢出效应 SAR PECM 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]