基于HMM的电厂安全仪表系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Power Plant Safety Instrumented System Based on HMM

作　　者：张江丰 汪自翔 苏烨 孙坚栋 张宏鑫 ZHANG Jiangfeng;WANG Zixiang;SU Ye;SUN Jiandong;ZHANG Hongxin(State Gird Zhejiang Electric Power Research Institute,Hangzhou 310014,China;Hangzhou E.Energy Electric Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310014,China;CLP International New Energy Hainan Co.,Ltd.,Haikou 570000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,浙江杭州310014 [2]杭州意能电力技术有限公司,浙江杭州310014 [3]中电国际新能源海南有限公司,海南海口570000

出　　处：《自动化仪表》2021年第12期39-42,共4页Process Automation Instrumentation

基　　金：国网浙江省电力有限公司科技基金资助项目(5211DS200003)。

摘　　要：安全仪表系统(SIS)作为控制系统的报警和联锁部分,是保障人员和设备安全的重要系统,但目前在发电领域对于安全仪表系统的可靠性缺乏定量的评估手段。为此,在IEC 61508-1标准的基础上,提出了基于隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)的安全仪表系统可靠性评估方法。该方法在考虑安全仪表系统设备潜在失效性的前提下,对安全仪表系统控制器进行HMM建模,并在模型基础上求解系统的失效概率。通过对照IEC 61508-1标准中关于安全完整性等级分类,实现对安全仪表系统可靠性的有效评估。利用基于HMM的安全仪表系统可靠性评估方法来评估不同安全仪表系统的安全完整性等级。仿真结果显示,所给出的方法可以准确计算出安全仪表系统的要求时失效概率(PFD),实现对安全仪表系统安全完整性等级的有效评估。The safety instrumented system(SIS),as the alarm and interlock part of the control system,is an important system to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment.However,there is a lack of quantitative evaluation method for the reliability of the SIS in the field of power generation.Therefore,based on IEC 61508-1 standard,a reliability evaluation method of SIS based on hidden Markov model(HMM)is proposed.Considering the potential failure of the SIS,the HMM of the controller of the SIS is carried out,and the failure probability of the system is calculated based on the model.By referring to the classification of safety integrity level in IEC 61508-1 standard,the reliability of the SIS is effectively evaluated.The safety integrity level of different SISs is evaluated by the HMM based SIS reliability evaluation method.Simulation results show that the proposed method can accurately calculate the required time failure probability(PFD)of the SIS and realize the effective evaluation of the safety integrity level of the SIS.

关 键 词：安全仪表系统 安全完整性等级 隐马尔可夫模型 遗传算法 Baum-Welch算法 要求时失效概率 观测序列 可靠性 

分 类 号：TH-81[机械工程]