中国70个大中城市房价指数空间格局与影响因素分析  

An Analysis on the Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of House Price Index in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China

作　　者：虞晓芬[1,2] 湛东升 Yu Xiaofen;Zhan Dongsheng(School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023;China Academy of Housing&Real Estate,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学管理学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学中国住房和房地产研究院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2022年第1期40-51,共12页Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国城市商品住房价格异常波动、形成机理与长效治理机制研究”(71774144);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度研究”(18JZD033)。

摘　　要：基于国家统计局公布的2006-2020年中国70个大中城市房价指数数据,采用GIS空间分析和空间杜宾模型方法详细探讨了中国70个大中城市房价指数空间格局及其影响因素。研究结果表明:中国70个大中城市房价指数的分布整体上呈现出沿海城市高于内陆城市,东部城市高于西部城市的空间格局;中国70个大中城市房价指数存在一定程度的空间相关性,但不同年份的空间自相关强度或方向却略有差异;空间冷热点分析发现,中国70个大中城市房价指数的热点区主要分布在东部和南部地区,冷点区主要分布在中部和北部地区;空间杜宾模型结果表明,人均GDP、第三产业比例、货币发行量、人均社会消费品零售总额和公共服务是影响中国70个大中城市房价指数空间分异的主要因素。Based on the house price index data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2020 published by the National Bureau of Statistics,the spatial pattern and influencing factors of house price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China are discussed in detail by using GIS spatial analysis and Spatial Dobbin Model.The results show that:the distribution of house price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China shows a spatial pattern that the index of coastal cities is higher than that of inland cities,and eastern cities higher than western cities.The house price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China has a certain degree of spatial correlation,but the intensity or direction of spatial autocorrelation is slightly different in different years.The spatial cold and hot spot analysis shows that the hot spots of house price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China are mainly distributed in the east and south,and the cold spots are mainly distributed in the central and north.The results of Spatial Dobbin Model show that per capita GDP,the proportion of tertiary industry,currency circulation,per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods and public services are the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of house price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China.

关 键 词：房价指数 空间格局 影响因素 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]