基于贝叶斯网络的地震次生灾害情景演化分析  

Scenario Evolution Analysis of Earthquake Secondary Disasters Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：方丹辉[1,2] 于款 万端翼 陈涛[3] FANG Danhui;YU Kuan;WAN Duanyi;CHEN Tao

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [3]华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2021年第6期493-499,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFF0306000).

摘　　要：为使城市在面对地震时能够高效地开展应急行动,需要了解地震及其次生灾害的演化机理。从全局的角度出发,提出了一种突发事件情景构建模型,参考国内外地震的相关资料和文献,构建了地震次生灾害演化全过程,确定地震次生灾害演化系统贝叶斯网络的各节点及其取值范围,进而构建贝叶斯网络模型。通过统计国内外17个典型地震案例的相关数据,应用贝叶斯网络模型定量分析不同应急行动对灾害造成后果的影响,分析网络中各子节点的敏感性,提取敏感性因素。结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的地震次生灾害情景构建和敏感性分析,可以帮助应急管理部门掌握突发事件的演化路径,有针对性地开展应急行动,阻止事件进一步恶化。In order to enable cities to carry out emergency actions efficiently in the face of earthquakes,it is necessary to understand the evolution mechanism of earthquakes and their secondary disasters.From the overall point of view,an emergency scenario construction model is proposed and constructs the evolution panorama of earthquake secondary disasters with reference to the relevant data and literature of earthquakes at home and abroad.Each node and its value range in the Bayesian network of earthquake secondary disaster evolution system are determined,and then the Bayesian network model is constructed.Through the statistics of the relevant data of 17 typical earthquake cases at home and abroad,the Bayesian network model is used to quantitatively analyze the impact of different emergency actions on the consequences of disasters,analyze the sensitivity of each sub-node in the network,and find out the sensitive factors.The results show that the scenario construction and sensitivity analysis of earthquake secondary disasters based on Bayesian network can help the emergency management department master the evolution path of emergencies,carry out targeted emergency actions and prevent the events from evolving in a bad direction.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 演化分析 情景构建 地震 次生灾害 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]