贝叶斯支端定年法推断分异时间和演化速率  

Using Bayesian tip-dating method to estimate divergence times and evolutionary rates

作　　者：张驰 ZHANG Chi(Key Laboratory of Vertebrate Evolution and Human Origins of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100044;CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment,Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院古脊椎动物与古人类研究所,中国科学院脊椎动物演化与人类起源重点实验室,北京100044 [2]中国科学院生物演化与环境卓越创新中心,北京100044

出　　处：《古脊椎动物学报（中英文）》2021年第4期333-341,共9页Vertebrata Palasiatica

基　　金：中国科学院率先行动百人计划青年俊才(C类)和中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(B类)(编号:XDB26000000)资助。

摘　　要：贝叶斯支端定年法是近些年开发的推断类群分异时间和演化速率的方法。它克服了传统分步计算的缺陷,但涉及的统计学知识也更多。本文从贝叶斯统计计算的角度分层剖析了支端定年法的原理和计算过程,按照分异时间的先验分布、演化速率的先验分布、特征状态变化的模型和马氏链蒙特卡罗算法几个部分,叙述并讨论了定年计算中的主要模型和算法。旨在一定程度上为古生物学家分析实际数据提供参考。Bayesian tip dating is a recently developed method to estimate divergence times and evolutionary rates.It overcomes several drawbacks in traditional stepwise approach.However,it also requires more knowledge about statistics.This paper hierarchically explains the theory and computation in the Bayesian tip-dating approach,and divides the whole process into prior for the divergence times,prior for the evolutionary rates,model for the character changes and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,which are key components in this method.The aim is to provide a general guidance for paleontologists in empirical data analyses.

关 键 词：贝叶斯支端定年法 石化生灭过程 宽松钟 Mk模型 MRBAYES 

分 类 号：Q91-3[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]