美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应研究  

Research on the Spillover Effect of Fed’s Forward Guidance on Emerging Market Countries

作　　者：肖曼君[1] 唐诗敏 XIAO Manjun;TANG Shimin(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2022年第1期27-34,共8页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BGJ032)。

摘　　要：基于前瞻性指引溢出效应的相关理论,选取17个代表性新兴市场国家为研究对象,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证分析美联储前瞻性指引对新兴市场国家的溢出效应。结果表明:美联储前瞻性指引在短期内对新兴市场国家金融市场具有一定的冲击,在长期内对新兴市场国家经济增长存在滞后的正向作用。新兴市场国家应采取应对策略,做好风险识别和预警,加强预期管理,增强货币政策协调和合作,有效防范和化解外溢影响。Forward guidance is a monetary policy tool that a central bank uses to guide the public’s expectations.Since the financial crisis,the Federal Reserve has frequently applied forward guidance into practice,which not only affects its own economic development,but also has spillover effects on other countries,especially emerging market countries.Based on the theories of forward guidance spillover effect,this paper selects 17 representative emerging market countries as samples,and establishes PVAR model to test the spillover effect of Fed’s forward guidance on emerging market countries.The empirical results show that Fed’s forward guidance has a certain impact on emerging market countries’financial markets in the short term,and has a positive lagged influence on emerging market countries'economic growth in the long term.In order to prevent and defuse the impacts,emerging market countries should act in a timely manner,strengthen monetary policy coordination and cooperation,and attach importance to its communication and expectation management.

关 键 词：美联储 前瞻性指引 溢出效应 新兴市场国家 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]