黄河流域碳均衡时空演化特征与经济增长脱钩效应研究  

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon balance and decoupling effect of economic growth in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：宋梅[1] 郝旭光[1] 柳君波 SONG Mei

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2021年第7期91-103,共13页Urban Problems

基　　金：自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室课题(CCA2019.16)。

摘　　要：利用黄河流域省域夜间灯光数据和IPCC方法测得省域能源消费碳排放量,基于总量分配的思想构建各省光碳转换系数,估算了2003一2018年黄河流域90个地级行政区碳排放量;结合净初级生产力(NPP)数据,利用探索性空间数据分析了黄河流域碳均衡时空演化特征;改进Tapio脱钩模型,研究黄河流域经济增长与碳环境压力的关系。结果表明:首先,黄河流域碳排放先快速增长后缓慢增长,而碳汇总体呈缓慢增长态势,流域整体于2007年首次出现碳失衡;其次,黄河流域碳源碳汇空间逆向分布特征明显,碳排放总体格局为"东高西低",而碳汇格局为"西高东低";城市尺度碳失衡集中出现在2003—2008年,2018年赤字率达到62%;第三,黄河流域碳赤字在空间上呈现显著的正相关关系,LISA时空跃迁表现出较强的路径锁定特征,跃迁方向经历了强有序—无序—弱有序的发展历程;第四,黄河流域经济增长与碳环境压力的脱钩率逐期递增,总体以弱脱钩为主,2013年后脱钩类型分化明显。Based on the provincial night light data and energy consumption carbon emissions measured by the IPCC method,this paper constructed the annual light-to-carbon conversion coefficients of each province with the idea of total amount allocation and estimated the carbon emissions of 90 prefecture-level administrative regions in the Yellow River Basin( YRB) from 2003 to 2018;Further combining with the net primary productivity( NPP) data,the exploratory spatial data analysis was used to study the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the carbon balance in the YRB;Then explored the relationship between economic growth and environmental pressure of carbon by the improved Tapio decoupling model. The main findings are as follows: Firstly,carbon emissions in the YRB increased rapidly at first and then slowly,while carbon sequestration showed a slow growth trend. The carbon balance of the YRB was broken for the first time in 2007. Secondly,carbon source and carbon sequestration of the YRB are distributed inversely in space. The overall pattern of carbon emissions is " high in the east and low in the west",while the pattern of carbon sequestration is " high in the west and low in the east". Carbon imbalance at prefecture-level city scale mainly occurred in 2003-2008 and carbon deficit rate reached 62% in 2018. Thirdly,carbon deficit of the YRB showed a significant positive spatial correlation. LISA space-time transition had a strong path locking effect. The direction of LISA transition undergone a development process of strong order-disorder-weak order. Finally,the decoupling rate of economic growth and carbon environmental pressure in the YRB increased gradually,the weak decoupling was the main state,and the decoupling types were clearly differentiated after 2013.

关 键 词：碳均衡 时空演化 脱钩效应 夜间灯光数据 黄河流域 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]