基于交通冲突模型的两相位交叉口安全分析  

Analyzing the safety of signalized intersections with permitted left-turn phases using traffic conflict-predictive models

作　　者：张鑫 ZHANG Xin(Government Service Center of Beijing Municipal Transport Commission,Beijing Ships Inspection Center,Beijing100161,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市交通委员会政务服务中心,北京市船舶检验所,北京100161

出　　处：《汽车与安全》2021年第12期90-97,共8页Auto & Safety

摘　　要：基于昆明市20个两相位十字交叉口167小时的交通冲突、交通流量以及交叉口设计要素等数据,检验不同交通量状态下15min直左交通冲突分布,应用直左交通冲突模型分析交叉口安全影响因素及冲突产生原因。利用广义线性模型分别构建总体预测模型和分交通状态的预测模型,结合两种模型的拟合优度和预测精度进行模型优选。结果表明:15min直左交通冲突在不同交通量状态下均服从负二项分布,考虑交通状态的直左冲突模型拟合优度和预测精度均优于总体模型。不同交通状态下冲突流量对交通冲突影响程度不同;左转导流线能够有效降低交通冲突,且在左转车流饱和度较高状态下的降低效果更明显。交通冲突模型的建立可进一步拓展交通冲突技术在交通安全分析与评价中的应用。The traffic conflict data,traffic volume data and intersection design elements were extracted from 167 hours video data at 20 signalized intersections where the permitted left-turn phases were used.Using the data,the underlying distributions of the conflict frequency for different volume regimes in 15-min time intervals were examined.And the opposing left-turn traffic conflict-predictive models were developed to analyze the safety performance of signalized intersection and find the influence factors of traffic conflict.Using Different conflict-predictive models were developed,including an overall negative binomial model and the separate models developed for different traffic scenarios which were defined based on the volume to capacity ratio of the conflicting traffic flows.The goodness of fit and prediction performance of different models were compared.It was found that the conflict frequency in 15-min time intervals generally followed a negative binominal distribution.And the generalized linear regression models developed for different traffic scenarios outperformed the overall NB model for the goodness of fit and prediction performance.The coefficients of the conflict prediction models showed that the conflicting traffic volumes had different effects on the occurrences of opposing left-turn conflicts under different traffic scenarios.The coefficients of the indicator variables for the presence of white line extension indicated that using the white line extension was helpful to reduce the opposing left-turn conflicts where the reduce effect was more obvious with the higher vL/cL of the left-turn volume.The use of conflict predictive models has potential to expand the uses of surrogate safety measures in safety estimation and evaluation.

关 键 词：交通安全 交通冲突 交通安全分析 广义线性模型 信号交叉口 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]