考虑脉冲现象的复杂供应链系统及其稳定策略  

Complex Supply Chain System Considering Impulse and Its Stabilization Strategy

作　　者：彭扬 吴江[2] 谭涛 胡林秀 Peng Yang;Wu Jiang;Tan Tao;Hu Linxiu(School of Mathematical Physics and Data Science,Chongqing University of Science and Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;School of Statistics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆科技学院数理与大数据学院,重庆401331 [2]西南财经大学统计学院,成都611130

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第2期159-163,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(JBK2002011)。

摘　　要：供应链系统是一个复杂的系统,一方面由于时间延迟、信息不对称及反馈机制等,会产生牛鞭效应,另一方面供应链具有需求突增或骤减的脉冲特点,上述现象都可能导致供应链系统混沌,而现有的供应链模型仅考虑了“牛鞭效应”,并未考虑脉冲现象对供应链系统的影响。文章建立了考虑脉冲现象的供应链模型,分析了脉冲现象对供应链系统的影响,并给出了使供应链系统稳定的策略,讨论了参数扰动对该模型的影响,通过数值算例验证了稳定策略的有效性。研究发现:脉冲现象对供应链系统有着显著影响,但只要选取恰当的脉冲强度和脉冲时间间隔,供应链系统是可以稳定的。Supply chain system is a complex system.On the one hand,bullwhip effect will occur due to time delay,information asymmetry and feedback mechanism.On the other hand,the supply chain has the impulse characteristics of sudden increase or decrease in demand.All the above phenomena may lead to chaos in supply chain system.However,the existing supply chain model only considers"bullwhip effect"and does not consider the influence of impulse on supply chain system.This paper establishes a supply chain model considering impulse,analyzes the influence of impulse phenomenon on supply chain system,gives the strategy to make supply chain system stable,discusses the influence of parameter disturbance on the model,and also verifies the effectiveness of the stabilization strategy by numerical examples.It is found that the impulse phenomenon has a significant effect on the supply chain system,but the supply chain system can be stable as long as the impulse intensity and impulse time interval are properly selected.

关 键 词：供应链系统 脉冲现象 “牛鞭效应” 混沌 稳定策略 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理] F274[经济管理—国民经济]