国企分红的投资效应研究——基于投资效率与投资风险的双重视角  

Research on the Investment Effect of State-owned Enterprise Dividend--Based on the Dual Perspectives of Investment Efficiency and Investment Risk

作　　者：张国胜 聂其辉 ZHANG Guosheng;NIE Qihui(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2022年第1期47-57,共11页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA068)。

摘　　要：如何在企业层面处理好“国企分红”与“促投资”的关系,寻求既能促进投资效率又能规避投资风险的国企分红比例,是当前国有资本经营预算制度改革中的焦点。以2008—2019年沪深A股国有上市公司为样本,采用面板固定效应和Probit模型对国企分红的投资效应问题进行实证分析。研究发现:国企分红比例与非效率投资和投资风险之间呈U型关系,当国企分红比例小于38.89%时,能够有效改善投资效率,同时降低投资风险;当国企分红比例超过38.89%时,随着分红比例的继续提高,投资效率随之下降,同时投资风险显著上升。基于企业异质性的研究表明,国企分红的投资效应因国企规模、行政级别、所属行业的技术特质和竞争程度的不同而存在差异。因此,政府需要充分考虑不同国企的具体情况,有针对性地分类制定国企分红比例,以提高政策的精准性。How to deal with the relationship between SOE dividend and promotion of investment at the enterprise level,and to seek the SOE dividend ratio that can not only promote investment efficiency but also avoid investment risks is the key content of the current state capital operation budget system reform.This paper takes the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share state-owned listed companies from 2008 to 2019 as samples,and conducts an empirical analysis on the investment effect of SOE dividend based on the panel fixed effect and Probit model.The results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between the SOE dividend ratio,inefficient investment and investment risk.When the dividend ratio is less than 38.89%,it can effectively improve the investment efficiency and reduce the investment risk.When the dividend ratio exceeds 38.89%,with the continuous improvement of dividend ratio,the investment efficiency decreases,and the investment risk effect is significant.In addition,based on enterprise heterogeneity,the study shows that the impact of SOE dividend on firm investment varies with the size,the administrative level,the technical characteristics and the degree of competition of the industry.Therefore,the government needs to give full consideration to the specific conditions of different SOEs and formulate the SOE dividend ratio in a targeted manner to improve the accuracy of the policy.

关 键 词：国企分红 投资效率 投资风险 企业异质性 国企改革 外部资本市场 内部资金配置 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]