交通事故状态下驾驶员路径选择建模及应用  

Modeling and application for the route choice of drivers under traffic accident condition

作　　者：曹亚康[1] Cao Yakang(Management Engineering Department,Shaanxi Railway Institute,Shaanxi Weinan,714000,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院铁道运输学院,陕西渭南714000

出　　处：《机械设计与制造工程》2021年第12期119-122,共4页Machine Design and Manufacturing Engineering

基　　金：陕西铁路工程职业技术学院2017年自然科学研究课题(KY2017-025)。

摘　　要：为了避免交通拥堵的出现,可变信息板(VMS)通过发布交通诱导信息来引导驾驶员选择最合理路径。通过构造基于陈述偏好调查(SP调查)的驾驶员路径选择行为的有序多分类Logit模型,分析交通事故状态下各因素对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响。分析结果表明,车辆类型、年收入、驾驶风格、遇红决策、遇黄决策对交通事故状态下驾驶员路径选择行为的影响较大。最后将构建的Logit模型应用到北京快速路上,并提出相应的对策建议。To avoid traffic jams in road networks, Variable Message Signs(VMS) can guide drivers to the optimal route through traffic guidance information. This paper analyses factors which influence drivers while choosing routes under traffic accident conditions through building the multi-category ordinal Logit model based on a stated preference survey. The analysis results show that the main elements affecting drivers while choosing a route are car type, annual income, driving style, the measure that encounters blocked traffic and the measure that encounters congested traffic. Based on the Logit model, this paper applies it to Beijing expressway and puts forward some suggestions.

关 键 词：可变信息板 交通事故 路径选择 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]