2020—2021年冬季京津唐电网负荷与气温之间的关系研究  

Study on the relationship between the load and the temperature of beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan power network during the winter of 2020-2021

作　　者：龚旋 刘宇 王子鹤 王伟 李博丰 刘健 GONG Xuan;LIU Yu;WANG Zihe;WANG Wei;LI Bofeng;LIU Jian(North China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing100053,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网有限公司华北分部,北京100053

出　　处：《电气应用》2022年第1期26-32,共7页Electrotechnical Application

摘　　要：冬季空调器、电采暖等供暖设备的使用率逐步提高,京津唐电网负荷受气温的影响也愈发明显,并在2021年1月6日的极寒天气影响下创历史新高。为了解气温对京津唐电网负荷的影响,并且准确预测次日负荷大小,首先对京津唐电网日最大(小)负荷与日最低(高)气温进行相关性分析;其次,建立负荷与气温的线性回归模型,分析京津唐地区负荷对气温的敏感度;最后,采用多元线性回归法建立京津唐负荷预测模型,并考虑节假日与极寒天气的影响,对预测结果进行修正。结果表明,京津唐电网的日最大负荷与日最低气温之间高度相关,负荷预测模型能够准确预测次日负荷大小,包括1月6日的负荷。此结果证明了预测模型的准确性,为提前安排发电机组的起停计划提供了帮助。The usage of air conditioning, electric heating and other heating equipment was gradually increasing in winter. The impact of air temperature on the load of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan (BBT) power network, which reached a record high due to extremely cold weather on January 6, 2021, was becoming more obvious. As a result, it is important to learn the impact of air temperature on the load and accurately forecast the load of the next day. To this end, Firstly the correlation is analysed between daily maximum (minimum) load and daily minimum (maximum) temperature. Then, a linear regression model of the load and temperature is established to analyse the sensitivity of load to temperature. Finally, the multiple linear regression method is used to establish a load forecasting model, of which the forecasting load result is revised when the next day is a holiday or has extremely cold weather. The results show that the daily maximum load is highly correlated with the daily minimum temperature, and that the load forecasting model can accurately estimate the next day load, including the load of January 6. These results verify accuracy of the load forecasting model, which provides a helpful guidance for scheming unit commitment plan in advance.

关 键 词：京津唐电网 气温 相关性分析 多元线性回归法 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]